Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 15th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Winds becoming light/variable Wed PM
• Small SSE swell Thurs, a notch bigger Fri with NE winds
• Small mixed bag Sat with NE windswell likely in the PM, late S’ly change.
• NE windswell Sun AM, with S’ly winds, tending SE-E in the a’noon
• More NE windswell likely Mon PM, possibly quite sizey Tues before another S’ly change
• Likely small E swell next week with onshore winds
• Keeping an eye on a still-active tropics- nothing expected in the short/medium term

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday from ex TC Gabrielle with most locations in the f/cast region reporting a continuation or even increase in size with strong 6-8ft sets and some bigger 8-10ft surf at deepwater adjacent reefs. Winds were mostly S-SE with some periods of lighter winds reported although best surf was at protected locations. Size has wound back today as we get to the shoulder of this swell event with sets to 4-6ft on offer and variable/NW winds providing clean-ish conditions with a bit of residual lump and bump to deal with. Size is now on the downwards trend.

Bommie cracking yesterday

Still some nice peaks around this morning

This week (Feb 15-17)

Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead. 

In the short run and there’s not much change to the f/cast outlook. Early NW winds will tend NE at moderate strength in a typical Summer flow. Inconsistent 3ft sets early will taper off through the day, likely ending up less than 2ft during the a’noon.

Similar winds to end the working week- likely a notch stronger through the a’noon. Small leftovers to 2ft in the morning get a minor boost in the a’noon as SE swell from the fetch near the South Island makes landfall. Compared to model runs Mon it looks even weaker and more poorly aligned today so keep expectations pegged appropriately low. A few 2ft sets, with some 2-3ft surf at the more reliable swell magnets under mod/fresh NE winds.

This weekend (Feb 18-19)

Small leftovers from the SE Sat morning under light NW-N breezes, with winds freshening through the day from the NE. A small amount of NE windswell may offer some sidewinders in the a’noon for the keen with size not exceeding 2ft. A S’ly change pushing up the coast with a trough now looks to arrive right on, or just after dark through the Sydney basin ( earlier on the Illawarra). 

That change will see fresh S’lies for the early Sun morning with the trough quickly washing out during the day and leaving a mod SE-E flow. Not very inspiring with a small leftover NE windswell quickly dissipating and not much else. 

Next week (Feb 20 onwards)

Not much surf on offer through the start of next week. Light winds Mon morning turn NE as another trough approaches with marginal 1-2ft surf on offer. N’ly winds developing off the Mid North Coast into the Tasman are likely to see NE windswell build in the a’noon.

A S’ly change pushes through Tuesday, with the trough again expected to quickly wash out as it reaches the Hunter and lower Mid North Coast. NE windswell may be significant (in the 3ft range) but models are divergent so it’s hard to have much confidence in size. Pencil in some clean NE windswell Tues morning under SW-S winds with winds tending SE-E in the a’noon.

From mid next week a large high slides SE of Tasmania into a dominant Summer position.

Couple of options open up as it does so. We may see a slow moving trough linger off the South Coast, potentially setting up a proximate E’ly fetch aimed more at the South Coast and Tasmania generating onshore winds but some fun chunky E swell, with smaller  E swell on offer further north. 

Small E swell is likely to develop from E’ly winds setting up through the Southern Coral and Tasman Seas and finally, we may see a fetch develop out of Cook Strait later next week with potential for ESE swell into next weekend.

We’ll flag all those for now, and come back Fri for the inevitable revisions. 

Check ya then.