Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 1st March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Robust S’ly change Wed, easing Thurs with mediocre short range S swell Wed PM, Thurs AM before easing
• Small mixed bag Fri with light winds
• Traces of long period S swell Fri-Sun, biggest Sun
• Light winds Sat, tending N/NE Sun and freshening
• Small amounts of E/NE swell all weekend
• Small mixed bag continues into next week with NE winds, NE windswell Mon PM/Tues
• Complex low moves into Tasman next week, pulses of S swell ahead from Wed-Fri
• Tropics downgraded as depressions or TC’s race away to the SE

Recap

Mostly mediocre surf since Mon with small SE swell in the 2-3ft range yesterday cleanest early under light winds before SE-NE breezes kicked in. Some long period S swell showed, mostly at S facing beaches in Sydney with 3ft sets in the a'noon. Today is seeing surf a notch smaller in the 2ft range- slightly bigger at swell magnets with traces of long period S swell easing in the mix. Conditions are clean with morning offshore breezes, tending variable offshore before a S’ly change works it’s way up the coast (gusting 36 knots SSW at Montague Island at 8am). S’ly windswell is expected to increase this a’noon.

Still a few long lines wrapping in from the S this morning

This week (Mar1-Mar3)

Lots of action on the charts but not much of it will translate to meaningful surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated. Further south a deep polar low and frontal system is generating large swells, with traces of long period S swell refracting back into temperate NSW over the coming days. A trough of low pressure is bringing a S’ly change to temperate NSW today, extending into the sub-tropics tomorrow. 

In the short run and todays S’ly change quickly runs out of steam tomorrow as the trough dissipates as it moves away from the coast. Expect a light, lingering SE flow through the morning (briefly SW inshore early North of the Harbour) tending light E/SE in the a’noon. Leftover short range S’ly swell peaks around 2ft in the morning before easing back during the day. 

Light winds are expected Fri morning, likely SW inshore early North of the Harbour before tending to light/mod SE-E/SE winds through the day. Expect a small mixed bag of S/SE and E swells. Long period S swell again glances the coast Fri so keep tabs on S facing beaches during the day for some 2-3ft sets, with a very uneven distribution in size expected.

This weekend (Mar 4-5)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure drifts E of Tasmania Sat with a weak ridge along the temperate NSW coast. 

Light winds are expected Sat- tending SE-NE in the a’noon but light enough for all day surfing. Not much size to look forwards too with a small mixed bag of short period S/SE swell and a small signal of E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics. All told, topping out around 2ft at exposed beaches. Just enough for a fun grovel.

Winds tend N/NE on Sunday and start to freshen as the high quickly moves NE and elongates. Small mixed bag continues with a stronger signal of long period S swell expected as well as slightly more E/NE swell from the tropics. Those S facing beaches that register the swell (and these swells are always flukey) should see some 3ft+ sets during Sun. Worth a look around for. 

Next week (Mar6 onwards)

N’ly winds freshen Mon as a complex low approaches from the W and tightens pressure gradients. Leftover S and small E/NE swell supplies small 2ft surf for the morning with NE windswell whipping up in the a’noon, likely into the 2-3ft range.

We’re likely to see NE windswell peak through Tues morning with some 3ft sets. Winds look tricky at this point with a trough hovering in the area. Possibly early W-NW before a S’ly change or light and variable. We’ll revise Fri.

The complex low starts to move E into the Tasman by Tues bringing our first series of S swell pulses of the Autumn. We’ll peg early size estimates in the 2ft range possibly as early as late Tues from a Bass Strait fetch Mon. 

The bulk of the swell is likely to fill in Wed and hold Thurs/Fri in the 3ft range at S facing beaches. Winds look OK, the front pushes far enough north-wards to drive a mostly W’ly biased wind across temperate NSW through Wed/Thurs with a more variable flow Fri.

Surf looks to then ease into next weekend 11/12 March.

Nothing much on the radar after that but check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.