Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 20th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Long period S'ly swell building Tues, though expect large variations in size across the region
• Windy S/SE swell Wed, easing Thurs
• Fun small mix of swells with light winds Fri
• Small average weekend ahead
• Tropics looking good long term, though worthwhile options keep geting pushed back in the timeline

Recap

The weekend saw small leftover SE energy early Saturday and a minor NE windswell later Saturday that fell below forecast expectations, and subsequently didn't offer anything worthwhile Sunday morning (partly attributed to a brief S'ly change late Saturday that interrupted the responsible NE fetch). Today's also been tiny.

This week (Feb 21 - 24)

(apologies this is late - and slightly rushed - Steve was covering the WSL today and I'm on the road)

Tuesday and Friday mornings will offer the best conditions of the week, as we've got a fresh S/SE change due overnight Tuesday that'll deteriorate surf quality for most of Wednesday, and Thursday will see lingering onshores (albeit with improving conditions). 

As for surf, there are a couple of sources.

The models aren't picking it up well but I'm still expecting an interesting long period south swell to glance the coast tomorrow. Buoy data from Tasmania's West Coast is still trending up (though periods are lower than expected); either way it'll be a very flukey event that will only favour well aligned south swell magnets. 

Most of these locations (south from the Cenny Coast through Sydney and Illawarra) should pick up inconsistent 3ft sets but we've often seen these kinds of long period swells - where peak periods top out around 18-20 seconds - push higher near 4-6ft across the Newy stretch (and at offshore bombies etc).

This event should peak late Tuesday and then ease slowly through Wednesday. So expect undersized wave heights early Tuesday. Beaches not exposed to the south will be smaller, seeing a peaky round of NE windwell around 1-2ft sourced from today's local breeze.

Conditions look clean early Tuesday with light winds though sea breezes are expected into the afternoon ahead of the advancing S/SE change. Wednesday will be a write-off at most beaches under a gusty cross-onshore airstream. There'll also be 3ft of local windswell in the mix too.

Thursday's easing wind will accompany easing swells from the S/SE - which could be fun/lumpy by lunchtime through the afternoon - and at this stage Friday's looking like offering fun small beachbreaks with easing S/SE swell from Thursday plus a small SE pulse from a cut-off low developing off the SW tip of New Zealand's south island late Wednesday (see below - this swell will arrive into the afternoon, then ease Saturday).

This weekend (Feb 25 - 26)

Nothing special this week, just a small mix of SE swell (Saturday) from the minor low of New Zealand - perhaps some 2-3ft sets if we're lucky - plus a spread of minor trade swell from a mid-late week ridge building across the Tasman Sea. Early light winds will perk up from the NE into the afternoon.

Sunday looks slightly smaller with light morning winds and afternoon sea breezes. Certainly nothing epic. 

Next week (Feb 27 onwards)

Last Friday's notes mentioned some opportunities for the long term from the tropics. The potentuialis still there but the models have shunted developments back a couple of days, which is concerning as it sometimes takes a week or two for the pattern to lock into the window (what I mean is, I wouldn't be surprised if it's shunted back again tomorrow and Wednesday).

Either way, the models aren't showing anthing definitive but there are options brewing long term so let's see how Wednesday's outlook is performing.