A low is expected to move E of Tasmania o/night and form a broad low pressure trough in the Tasman driving N-NW’ly then S’ly winds up the coast before moving NE as a surface low over the weekend. That will be the second surface low in succession to form in the Tasman and we may yet see a third develop later next week.
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In the tropics a trough deepening between Vanuatu and Fiji forms a broad surface low which tracks southwards through the wide open South Pacific slot between the North Island and tropical island chains, generating some tasty E’ly swell next week.
Surf now looks fun without being spectacular. A polar low passing to the south is sending long period S swells up the pipe. A modest but broad trade fetch in the Coral Sea is supplying some small E’ly tradeswell.
We have a broad front passing into the Tasman and a northwards moving trough, with a high pressure ridge filling in behind those short range features. The front will supply workable levels of S swell Sun but winds will be a problem with a a mod/fresh S’ly flow, tending SE’ly- E’ly during the day.
The current S swell will ease through tomorrow with a pair of cold fronts passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri ahead of another trough and high pressure ridge. In short, we’ll see pulses of S swell but favourable winds will be short-lived.
We’ve currently got a cold front linked to a compact parent low moving across and SE of Tasmania with high pressure tracking through the bight towards Victoria. That will bring a robust S’ly change tomorrow and some workable S swell for temperate NSW, with a trough in the sub-tropics tilting the change more S/SE-SE later tomorrow into Wed.
The weekend’s large S/SE swell is still expected to push through, but unfortunately, winds are still looking difficult for many areas.
I still really like the way this system is developing so the swell potential remains high this weekend. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about local winds.
Friday is probably the best day of the week as we’ll see plenty of S/SE swell and lighter winds as a weak ridge of high pressure settles across the region.
Very dynamic weekend f/cast. Strong high pressure (1030hpa) moving off the Southern NSW Coast with a trough and embedded coastal low currently forming off the Far North Coast and expected to deepen into tomorrow before dissipating Sun and lingering in the Tasman early next week as a trough.