South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE Qld surf for the first half of next week
• N/NE winds affecting surf conditions south from Ballina early next week, with just a few flukey south swells
• Slow build in E tradeswell expected this weekend (Sun more likely)
• Chances improving for a decent, sizeable E'ly quadrant swell next weekend and beyond from developing tropical activity- low confidence in specifics, check back Wed

Recap

The weekend’s S swells came in at the optimistic end of f/cast expectations although with the typical wide spread of wave heights. NENSW saw 3-5ft of S swell Sat, easing through the day with the MNC seeing a building trend through the day and SEQLD seeing 3-4ft at the best S swell magnets, tiny on the Sunshine Coast. Surf eased through Sun with light winds tending NE in the a’noon. A new pulse of S swell was observed across NENSW in the a’noon. Still some 2-3ft S swell on offer today across NENSW S facing beaches, tiny in SEQLD with light/mod E-E/NE breezes across the region. 

Some S swell still showing across NENSW this morning 

This week (Jan 27-31)

Still a patchy outlook for the short term with a weak high tracking across the Tasman and some frontal activity approaching from below the Bight. This frontal activity will combine with a trough to deliver a S’ly change Wed on the MNC before it stalls out around Coffs Harbour. Small S swells pad out a low energy outlook short term with SEQLD not getting much at all until the weekend where a developing trade flow starts a slow build in E’ly tradeswell over the weekend. Longer term is starting to look more dynamic as the tropics finally starts to fire up. Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones which could deliver large E’ly swells. There’s no clear model trends yet so we’ll outline the possibilities and track them through the week and see how they shape up.

In the short run the NE infeed into the approaching trough fires up through today and o/night into tomorrow morning, whipping up NE windswell into the 3ft range across the MNC, grading smaller as you approach the QLD border with only minor 1-2ft surf north of there. Winds will be lighter north of the border, as a consolation. S groundswell holds some 2-3ft sets in the a’noon across NENSW with only a handful of locations handling the swell direction and N’ly wind combo.

Not much again in SEQLD on WED with light winds and minor windswells to less than 2ft (tops!). Minor NE windswells in NENSW to 2ft before a weak S’ly change stalls north of Coffs. We may see some minor S swell in the mix.

Small mixed bag of swells to wind down the working week. The remnants of the trough linger in the Tasman with a constrained fetch of SE breezes aimed at Central NSW. That will provide surf in the 1-2ft range Thurs, with some better quality S swell to 2-3ft showing across NENSW S swell magnets. SEQLD looks to remain tiny and weak with light E-NE breezes. Great days for offshore fishing, not much in the way of surf. 

Similar surf for Fri morning with light morning land breezes tending to weak NE breezes during the day. S facing beaches in NENSW should have a few 2 occ. 3ft sets early before size ebbs away with SEQLD remaining tiny and weak. 

This weekend (Feb1-2)

Not much swell energy for Sat, with a building trend in E’ly tradeswell on the radar for Sun. Absent anything more meaningful popping up we’ll see new high pressure slide into the Tasman with winds starting to develop an E-E/SE orientation. Not much size though- 1-2ft tops, but with light morning winds conditions should be suitable for kids and learners. 

By Sunday we should see winds starting to develop from the SE, beginning an extended period of E’ly swells. Early winds will be light, tending to mod strength SE’ly during the day. Small swells to 1-2ft begin to build during the day, potentially reaching 3ft in SEQLD, and grading smaller into NENSW, especially south of Ballina-Byron.

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

Eyes to the north next week as the tropics finally shows signs of firing up this summer. Model runs have been all over the place as they struggle to resolve an active monsoon trough which extends out from Northern Australia across the Coral Sea and into the South Pacific Island chains. 

Multiple low pressure centres are possible along this monsoon trough line, including tropical cyclones. With a week lead time there’ll be lots of revision as we head into the event so keep in mind this is just a broad sketch of potentials. We’ll dial in details as we get more information and consistency between models and between model runs. 

We’ll see an initial run of fun tradeswell early next week under current modelling as the supporting trade-wind field occupies the Coral Sea. That should see surf build into the 4ft range Mon across SEQLD, a notch smaller into NENSW under SE-E/SE winds. Depending on how our low pressure systems evolve we may see a few fun days of E’ly swell in the 4ft range through Tues and Wed, although there are scenarios were we get a much steeper increase during this period ( ie coast hugging low or tropical cyclone).

By Thurs we could be anywhere from 4-5ft E swell to 8-10ft cyclone swell depending on how the upcoming event plays out.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up- it’s certainly a very late start but it looks like a significant summer swell event is becoming more likely. 

Seeya Wed.