South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 31 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow build in E tradeswell expected this weekend- favouring the Sunshine Coast for size on Sat
• Plenty of fun-sized E’ly tradeswell for next week at a minimum with SE-E/SE winds
• Chances still for more sizeable E'ly quadrant swell Wed/Thurs next week from developing tropical activity near New Caledonia- low confidence in specifics, check back Mon

Recap

S quadrant swells showed to 3ft in NENSW through yesterday, extending into today at S facing beaches. Mixed in was some NE windswell, biggest south of Yamba, whipped up by fresh Nor-easters yesterday. Not much at all in SEQLD with minor E/NE swell to 1-1.5ft, 2ft sets at the best swell magnets. Nor-east winds have eased back today and tending to E’ly breezes. 

S swell across the North Coast with NE windswell cutting across it

This weekend (Feb1-2)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. Modest high pressure moves into the Tasman tomorrow, activating a ridge up the NSW/QLD coast and bringing SE-E/SE winds. An active monsoon trough with various low pressure centres is anchoring a trade-wind fetch through the Coral Sea and extending out into the South Pacific which will see slowly developing trade swell in the sub-tropics.

Light/mod E tending  SE winds for Sat with minor E’ly swells to 2ft tending to more E/NE swell in the a’noon. The Sunshine Coast should start to see a modest lift in size through the a’noon, not exceeding an inconsistent 2-3ft.

We’ll see the ridge strengthen on Sun with mod SE winds, fresh at time about open stretches so beachies will be blown out by early morning. Slowly building trade-swell will see a general rise across the region into the 2-3ft range and offering a few fun peelers across the Points. 

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

A more classic looking summer chart to start next week with high pressure in the Tasman and low pressure centres near New Caledonia and in the South Pacific slot, with a healthy E’ly tradewind fetch extending across most of the Central and Southern Coral Seas. We’ll discount the South Pacific low as it slides off to the SE quickly. 

The New Caledonia low and trade fetch will be active through next week, although there is still model variance over eventual outcomes. 

GFS favours a weaker resolution with the New Cal low remaining weak and tighter to the Island chain (see below).

Under this scenario trade swells are likely to push into the 3ft range Mon and pulse in the 3-4ft range through Tues-Wed, easing slowly through Thurs-Fri. 

The EC model has a stronger low near New Caledonia’s Grande Terre which enters the Coral Sea Mon with a healthier fetch of strong SE-E/SE winds on the southern flank. That would see stronger E’ly swell forming into Wed and Thurs- provisionally in the 4-5ft range.

Winds for both scenarios should be reasonable with light/mod E/SE flow tending more E/NE from mid week. Morning winds should be light enough for beachies to come into play. 

A small pulse of flukey S swell looks to make landfall across NENSW S facing beaches later Wed into Thurs- keep expecatations low but a few 2-3ft sets at magnets are possible.

Doesn’t look like we will get much more size from the tropical developments under current modelling. The problem is weak high pressure support which reduces pressure gradients and fetch size through the Eastern swell window and allows low pressure to slide off to the SE later next week.

If you were looking for a major point break swell or a system to shift sand you’re likely to be disappointed. If you are more satisfied with mid-range E swell which potentially opens up a greater range of surfable options then probabilities are shifting your way.

We could still see a tropical curve ball so keep tabs on notes and comments. 

More tropical low-pressure development looks likely into the end of next week with no major systems expected under current modelling. 

We may see a front push into the Tasman next weekend generating some S swell during next weekend. We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!