South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 29 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small signal of NE-E/NE windswell Thurs/Fri offering a just rideable wave
• Lighter winds Thurs AM
• Last pulse of S swell for NENSW S facing beaches Thurs PM, easing from Fri AM
• Slow build in E tradeswell expected this weekend (Sun more likely)
• Plenty of E’ly tradeswell for next week at a minimum with SE-E/SE winds
• Chances still for a decent, sizeable E'ly quadrant swell later next week from developing tropical activity- low confidence in specifics, check back Fri

Recap

Not much to recap with a tiny S swell signal yesterday offering some 2ft sets at S magnets in NENSW before NE winds kicked up to mod/fresh paces. Winds were lighter in SEQLD but absent the S swell there wasn’t much in the way of surf- 1-1.5ft tops at most beaches. Similar sized surf today with minor swells and NE winds making it a lay day for all but kids and learners. 

Nice sunrise but the magnets are tiny

This week (Jan 27-31)

The trough which brought a S’ly change to temperate NSW has now stalled on the MNC (S’ly at Coffs, NE at Yamba) with a weak trough line in the Tasman and some paltry SE winds below the trough line aimed up at Central NSW. Along with a last pulse of S swell we’ll see minor SE swell pad out the week. The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell subject to extremely low confidence in specifics. We’ll see E’ly tradeswells fill in across the sub-tropics over the weekend and early next week at a minimum. More significant E’ly swells are still on the table but contingent on low pressure developments next week. Read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see a small blend of NE windswells to 1-1.5ft, with some longer period S swell showing across NENSW S swell magnets to 2 occ. 3ft in the a’noon. Not much action at all in SEQLD. The trough will disrupt the N’ly flow briefly in the morning with light winds before winds kick up to mod paces in the a’noon.

Pretty similar for Fri, although we’ll see that longer period S swell fade out through the day leaving a small, weak signal of E’ly swell around 1-2ft. Light morning breezes (W-NW) kick up again from the NE suggesting another day of minor surf favouring backbeaches with some protection from the N’ly winds.

This weekend (Feb1-2)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. As a new high moves into the Tasman and tradewinds become fully established we’ll see winds shift into the typical SE-E/SE summer configuration. They should remain fairly light to moderate so conditions suitable for the beachies are on offer in the morning before winds kick up and only Points are offering a clean wave. 

Not much size for Sat, in the 2ft range but by Sun we should see a little more energy in the ocean, offering up an occ. bigger set. 

Don’t expect too much for Sun, it’ll be early next week before the trade swell fills in properly.  

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

A slow build in E’ly swell is expected for next week as high pressure sits in the Tasman, with a broad SE’ly wind field established in the Coral Sea and one, two or three low pressure systems stretched out along the monsoon trough line from the Coral Sea into the South Pacific.

We should see a slight kick in size Mon, following a further build Tues, at least into the 3-4ft range. 

Following that we’ll be hoping one of the tropical low pressure centres starts to slide southwards into the Tasman Sea. Models are still all over the place regarding this prospect although the latest EC run is suggesting such a scenario which may see better quality and sizier E swells later next week and into the weekend. Major revisions are still on the table as well so keep options open if you can. 

At a minimum well see a long lasting E’ly swell generated from the tradewind band into next weekend. 

Keep tabs on the f/cast notes and comments below the line- we’ll be seeing lots of model fluctuations as this highly dynamic monsoon phase evolves over the next week.

Seeya Fri.