A shallow, troughy change mid-week looks to stall around Seal Rocks before weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on our persistent trade-swell, which looks to ease off mid-week as the fetch retreats eastwards.
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Tradewinds keep chugging away supplying fun surf over the weekend.
A tradewind flow focussed around the New Caledonia area and out into the South Pacific slot will maintain fun E’ly tradewind surf in the sub-tropics.
As a result, we’re looking at small NE windswells for temperate NSW, with workable trade swells for the sub-tropics and a marginal amount of that swell filtering down to temperate regions.
A broad but weak E'ly tradewind fetch occupies the Coral Sea, producing some workable E'ly swell.
A large but not especially strong (1029 hPa) high pressure cell is west of Tasmania and slowly moving E where it enters the Tasman and becomes very slow moving. That will be the dominant feature of our synoptic set-up for some time, with a classic summer wind signal of SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending NE through temperate NSW.
Tradewinds will supply workable swells for the sub-tropics medium term with small pulses of S swell this week favouring NSW.
We’ll see the NE flow ramp up on Sun across the MNC, grading lighter the further north you go, as an approaching front and cut-off low really tightens the pressure gradient.
Troughiness next week does offer potential for low pressure development in the Tasman but we’ve got high model variability so confidence is very low in the outcomes.
Another unstable, troughy week ahead with humid, unstable air over the continent creating a series of troughs, one of which forms a slow moving trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast which interacts with a weak high pressure cell drifting in the Tasman.