We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight.
Primary tabs
We’re now looking at a very significant S swell early next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate southern swell window.
It’s likely we will see remnants of the inland monsoon low approach the SEQLD/NSW Coast during the weekend, dragging a moist NE flow down from the tropics and creating a mini black nor-easter event. We’ll see surf from this NE-E/NE infeed propagate from the sub-tropics down to temperate regions over the weekend.
Our eastern swell window is about to become juiced up as a coastal trough across Northern NSW and a high in the Tasman Sea strengthen the trade flow across the Northern Tasman Sea.
High pressure will be in the Tasman next week with ridge along the sub-tropics and a tradewind fetch enhanced by a long monsoon trough extending from the Indian Ocean across the north of the continent out to the South Pacific Island chains.
A small easterly trade swell will build through Thursday, offering some fun waves (banks permitting) throughout SE Qld and Northern NSW, before easing very slightly through Friday.
The front responsible for today’s cool change isn’t really that beneficial for our immediate surf prospects.
SW gales push through Bass Strait and off the Far South Coast Sun night and into Mon with the bulk of the frontal winds now likely to reach Coffs around 7am, Byron by lunch and the border around school pickup
A weak trade flow in the Coral Sea now only looks capable of generating minor background E’ly swells. N’ly winds will increase over the weekend as a more significant trough and frontal system pushes into the Tasman next week, generating swells from the southern quadrant.
The whole synoptic pattern on the East Coast in the wake of Alfred is a moist onshore flow which looks to persist through into the mid week. A weak front races across the lower Tasman before reinforcing high pressure slips into the Tasman to reset the flow, albeit at a weaker level. Not a great deal of swell generated by any feature this week.