South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of fun-sized E’ly tradeswell holding through Thurs/Fri with just a very gradual easing trend
• Light winds Thurs/Fri with morning offshores likely
• Small, fun E swell this weekend with light winds
• Potential for a slight kick in E swell Mon, depending on movement of low pressure system
• Otherwise, more small fun E swell Mon, easing Tues and looking small from mid week

Recap

E’ly tradeswells finally muscled up a notch today into the 4ft range (a few bigger sets reported) under light winds after being stuck in the 2-3ft range yesterday with poor quality. Conditions were better this morning with light land breezes widespread allowing for clean or semi-clean conditions across beachies and Points. Light winds are continuing through the day with a bit of surface ruffle about but still perfectly workable conditions. 

Clean conditions with fun trade swells this morning

This week (Feb 3-7)

No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri. We’ll see continuing mid-period tradeswells from this source, slowly easing from todays peak. The next S’ly change pushes into Southern NSW Sun before stalling, leaving a tricky, troughy pattern through the Tasman and Coral Seas with multiple fetches active through the forecast period with E’ly swells remaining predominant. On current modelling the resultant pattern is too mobile to generate any significant swells but we should see a continuation of small swells from various directions next week. 

In the short run we’ll see light winds continue through tomorrow and also into Fri under weak pressure gradients. Early light winds should have a  W’ly component right through the f/cast region (even the Sunshine Coast!) before tending to light SE-E breezes through the day. 

Surf-wise we’ll see the current mid period E swell just slowly, slowly trend downwards through this period. Still some 3ft+ or even occ. 4ft sets tomorrow morning, especially at E swell magnets, with a slow roll off in size and consistency through the day.

Friday should be more consistently 2-3ft, with a continuing very slow roll off in energy. 

There should be plenty of fun sized waves around both days, becoming a bit small and lazy through Fri.

This weekend (Feb 8-9)

No change to the weekend forecast. With a stalled trough in Central NSW we’ll see light winds Sat morning, tending to light SE-E a’noon breezes.

By Sun those winds will more E/NE in SEQLD, NE south of the border although not with any real strength.

Conditions should be clean for both mornings.

Surf-wise we should see clean fun surf in the 2ft range Sat, with the occ. bigger set still on offer.

Slight easing into Sun, dropping into the babyfood range.

We will see an intensification of one of the lows currently near New Caledonia as it slides off to the SE.

Under present modelling the speed of movement obliquely to the circle path severely limits swell production with just a slight kick in new swell likely into Mon.

If the low does slow down or stall at all during this movement an earlier kick in E swell is potentially on the table Sun a’noon. 

We’ll see how it looks Fri. 

Next week (Feb10 onwards)

High pressure moves south-east of Tasmania early next week with a trough lingering off the South Coast and directing a SE-S/SE fetch at the South and Central NSW coasts. Unlikely we’ll see much from that in the sub-tropics but some minor S/SE swell is a possibility, more likely on the MNC through later Mon into Tues.

Otherwise, more small E swell, just up a notch in period as swells from the retreating low make landfall. That is likely to be an inconsistent 2-3ft, with a chance of bigger sets through Mon, easing through Tues.

Again, if the low stalls at any point we’ll revise upwards.

Further ahead more tropical low pressure is expected to form on a SE-NW oriented monsoon trough next week but at this stage, low pressure slides off to the SE quickly and we’re not likely to get any meaningful swell from it as currently modelled.

Under that scenario we’d be looking at a low energy outlook from mid next week through the end of next week with small E swells in the sub 2ft range and light winds.

The monsoon trough still looks active medium term so revisions are possible- check back Fri and we’ll see how it looks.