South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increasing chance of morning land breezes Thurs, then more likely Fri
• Slow increase in E swell likely through this week as tropical low drifts southwards and trade fetch ramps up
• Increase in size Thurs into Fri
• Further increase in size over the weekend
• Light winds Sat morning tending N’ly- may be a period of NW-W winds, stay tuned for fine-tuning
• Early offshores Sun before a S’ly change
• Low expected to form in Tasman this weekend, bringing a late increase in S swell Sun (MNC to North Coast most likely)
• Stronger S swell next week, possibly peaking Tues/Wed
• E swell holds into Mon, with a last pulse possible Tues, easing Wed
• Dynamic outlook so stay tuned for updates 

Recap

Fun waves from the E-E/NE have fluctuated between 3-4ft over the last 2 days, with a peak yesterday (bigger 5ft sets reported from the MNC). Surf this morning was generally smaller in the 3ft+ range but is now building again as big morning tides start to drain off. Generally conditions have been workable in the mornings due to light winds before NE winds kick up in the a’noon. Winds should tend more E’ly this a’noon in SEQLD, NE south of Byron. 

Down a bit in some places but still plenty of E'ly energy in the water for the dawny

This week (Feb 10-14)

An active monsoon pattern is seeing a tropical low drifting in the Coral Sea with a supporting high approaching New Zealand and a slow moving trough line just off the NSW Coast. The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. We’ll see continuing E’ly swells from this source, with a long lasting peak as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend. A trough and low forming in the lower Tasman provide plenty of additional S swell on top of the E swell  into next week. 

In the short run winds become light tomorrow, generally SE-E in SEQLD, more E’ly in NENSW. We should see light land breezes through the morning before E’ly breezes at light/mod paces in the a’noon. Nothing complex about the outlook- more mid-period E’ly swell (it’s a range of swell periods but mid-period sources will be dominant) in the 3-4ft range with some occ. 5ft sets on the radar.  These swells tend to be pulsey and tidally mediated, especially with monthly maximums around the full moon, so expect some quieter periods through the day.

Very similar for Fri. Wave models are actually suggesting a touch under Thursday’s wave heights through the morning but any decrease is likely be minimal by an increase in size as longer period swell trains make landfall, especially in the a’noon. In short, wave heights won’t budge much from 3 occ. 4ft in the morning with some bigger 4-5ft sets (possibility for the very occ. 6ft set at select locations) later in the a’noon. If you don’t those bigger sets later Fri they’ll there on Sat. Light winds again Fri, similar to Thurs with morning land breezes likely tending to E’ly or NE’ly a’noon breezes. 

This weekend (Feb 15-16)

Still looking dynamic for the weekend as a powerful front, and trough push through the southern ocean and up the NSW coast respectively. Sat looks a but tricky wind-wise as a trough of low pressure hovers about the SEQLD inland, with a possibility of NW or even W breezes early before light/mod N’lies. The outflow from the inland low could see offshore winds extend down into the Byron-Ballina region. Further south, a light NW- N flow tends N’ly through the day. Strong E swell to 4-5ft is on the cards with some E swell magnets offering bigger sets. 

A northwards moving trough brings a strong S’ly change Sun. We should see NW winds from about Yamba northwards, with SW breezes already across the MNC to Coffs at dawn and the S’ly change in not long after that, reaching the North Coast late morning and border early a’noon. E swell holds to 3-4ft with bigger sets and some fast building short range S swell will quickly show across the MNC to North Coast through the a’noon, likely up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches across NENSW, smaller across the border and not showing at all on the Sunshine Coast.

Next week (Feb17 onwards)

We’ve got some energetic days ahead next week with a combo of S and E swells on the menu. Expect some revisions on Fri but the basic pattern should hold.

As the elongated Tasman Low sets up a long fetch through that area (see below), potentially with a nice slingshot fetch we’ll see plenty of S swell into Mon with a pulse from the slingshot fetch later Tues. At this stage, pencil in 4-6ft Mon across NENSW, with potential for 5-6ft and bigger sets on Tues a’noon at S exposed breaks, smaller into SEQLD.

The tropical low which becomes slow moving over the weekend may intensify as it approaches the North Island, sending more quality E swell through this period, likely in the 3-4ft range with occ. 5ft sets, with a possibility of some 6ft sets if it behaves at upper end of model expectations.

Still some uncertainty over local winds with a S’ly flow likely Mon, easing Tues and tending NE into Wed. Winds look to be light enough to offer workable options across a wide range of breaks at this stage.

An easing trend into mid week is expected with more frontal activity possibly supplying some small, reinforcing S swell later next week, although model agreement is poor and thus confidence is low. 

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.