A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. NW winds are still fresh and gusty across Bass Strait in response to a trough crossing the state, with further NW-W winds expected as another frontal system approaches over the weekend.
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A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Fresh NW-W winds are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.
Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into NE part of Tasmania.
Sun still looks great. A Cook Strait fetch should generate a good pulse of E'ly swell, easing through the day.
We've got a fun mix of SE and E swells for the coming period, worth making the most of.
We’ll see quite a few wind change this week as a result and an upgrade in S-S/SE swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman
More NE windswell is on the menu likely Thurs as a front approaches and N’ly winds freshen off Southern NSW.
Cold fronts are passing across the Island and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, with tiny amounts of S swell wrap. Nothing of any size its expected due to the zonal and mobile nature of the fetches so you’ll need to find a swell magnet to find anything rideable.
We’re still expecting gale force NW winds to develop Sat, with a chance for N’ly windswell wrap into the NE of the Island.