Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 13)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell pulses this week- with biggest surf Tues and Wed with workable winds
• Smaller S swell pulse Fri
• Another strong S’ly pulse late Sat, peaking Sun
• S swell leftovers Mon
• Potential NE windswell Mon and more next week

Recap

NE windswell started to build yesterday with size up into the 2-3ft range under freshening NE winds. A further increase today is seeing surf in the 3-4ft range with occ. bigger sets under mod/fresh NE winds tending N’ly.

This week and next week (Nov 13- Nov24)

Quite an active synoptic situation to start the week. The continent is unstable with a heat trough over NWWA and more troughs extending from the interior  through to the East Coast. A deep low and powerful frontal system with a long trailing fetch is currently traversing the lower Tasman, generating long period S swells. 

In the short run we’ll see undersized surf early before strong, long period S swell fills in tomorrow with early SW winds tending light and variable through the a’noon as swell fills in to 3-5ft at S facing beaches.

Plenty of size into Wed with sets to 4-5ft early, slowly easing during the day. Winds look funky- light E-E/NE tending variable N’ly in the a’noon as a trough hovers off the North Coast.

Another front Thurs brings a weak S’ly flow and small S swells to 2-3ft. 

Slightly stronger S swell behind the front fills in Fi morning to 3ft at S facing beaches with winds tending W’ly as a strong low passes to the south.

Into the weekend and we’ll likely see S’ly winds Sat as a new high pressure system ridges in from the Bight. Small surf early before more long period S swell fills in in the a’noon. Another powerful low tracking into the Far Southern Tasman- this time at potential storm force- sends more uncommonly long period S swell up the East Coast (although better aimed up the Tasman Sea pipe towards Fiji). With swell periods potentially  in the 14-16 second band there’ll be some real juice in the swell. Expect sets late on Sat to 3-4ft.

Sunday sees much larger long period S swell to 5-6ft at S facing beaches. Winds looks light/variable early, tending NE in the a’noon as the high pressure system slips E of the state.

Plenty of leftovers Mon from the S, with sets to 3-4ft easing in the day and the possibly of some building NE windswell in the a’noon. Winds look tricky so we’ll see how they shape up on Wed.

Further ahead and we’re likely to see more NE windswell next week with a large slow moving high in the Tasman. There’s poor model agreement due to a potential trough off theSouth Coast so we’ll see how it shapes up Wed.

It looks like an active period ahead.