Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 20)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE-E swells Tues-Thurs
• Slight bump in S swell Thurs PM, holding into Fri
• Increase in E/NE-NE swell Sat, building further Sun with onshore winds and a S’ly change Sun
• Increasing S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Possible SE-E/SE swell next week depending on low in Tasman

Recap

Small, insignificant surf on Sat less than a foot. Much stronger S swell filled in Sun with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under NW winds. Smaller S swells today with size in the 2ft range at S facing beaches and S/SE winds. 

This week and next week (Nov 20- Dec 1)

Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with an unstable troughy air mass in the interior and along the coast with a  N’ly flow across most of the Eastern seaboard as winds off the top of the high feed into the trough. Another high pressure system well below the continent approaches at Tasmanian longitudes late this week with a frontal intrusion prior to it’s entrance into the Tasman Sea offering up some modest S swell. The troughy pattern remains installed into the medium term so we’re still keeping an eye out for short range features which could supply local swell sources, although these look small and weak.

In the short run, we’ll see variable winds tending S/SE tomorrow and small amounts of NE windswell to 1-2ft from a fetch off the NSW Coast.

Similar winds and swell into Wed and Thurs morning before a small increase in S swell Thurs PM as a front passes to the south. No great size expected, with the NE windswell holding in the 1-2ft range and new S swell Thurs PM offering up some 2ft sets. 

Winds shift NE again Fri as a new high moves into the Tasman. Small amounts of S swell from the front and an off-axis fetch near NZ supply small S swell to 1-2ft.

Into the weekend and we should see an increase in NE-E/NE swell on Sat from winds feeding into a trough near the Gippsland coast. Expect size to ramp up into the 2-3ft range Sat, building furthering the 3ft+ range on Sun. Winds look to be onshore E/NE Sat and into Sun before a trough brings a S’ly change later Sun. 

Next week sees the trough form a small low off the Gippsland Coast (see below) with increasing S swell and S wind likely on Mon, up into the 4-5ft range. 

Low pressure off Gippsland coast brings onshore winds and swell early next week

Depending on how this small low behaves we should see easing surf on Tues as it moves away from the area. 

We may see continuing swell from this trough of low pressure depending on how it behaves next week. 

Check back Wed for the latest.