Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increase in E/NE-NE swell Sat, with a late S’ly change
• Steep rise in S swell Sun as trough of low pressure forms off Gippsland and strong S’ly winds
• Large S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Potential large E/NE swell Wed-Fri as new trough of low pressure forms off Tasmania

Recap

Small S swells continued yesterday with size in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches under SW tending SE winds with a small signal of NE swell  building to 2ft today under NE’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Nov 24- Dec 1)

High pressure is straddling Tasmania with the remnants of a front lingering near New Zealand with an off-axis fetch. A coastal trough and an inland trough maintain unstable conditions with a developing N-NE flow over the weekend. That will see increasing NE windswell tomorrow, up into the 3ft range with early N’ly winds tending W’ly before a S’ly change. There should be a window of clean fun waves in there under offshore winds.

Sunday sees the inland trough move off the Gippsland coast and form a surface low east of Tasmania. Expect a rising swell in the a’noon with morning surf to 2ft building to a windy, stormy 6ft in the a’noon under fresh S’ly winds.

Size should peak on Mon in the 6-8ft range under continuing fresh S tending S/SE winds. Sheltered spots will be smaller.

Into next week and the dynamic pattern offers up some potential for more chunky surf. Easing surf through Tues with onshore SE winds.

By Wed we should see another building trend as another trough deepens in Southern NSW/Gippsland and a strong infeed into the trough builds E/NE swells. We’ll finesse on Mon but expect surf to build into the 3-4ft range Wed.

By Thurs we should see even bigger surf, up into the 5-6ft range and possibly bigger depending on the position of a surface low which drifts south from the Gippsland region. Onshore winds look likely as well as elevated wave heights through Fri into the weekend.
Lots will depend on the lows position so check Mon for the inevitable revisions.

Until then, have a great weekend!