A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Fresh NW-W winds are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.
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Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into NE part of Tasmania.
Sun still looks great. A Cook Strait fetch should generate a good pulse of E'ly swell, easing through the day.
We've got a fun mix of SE and E swells for the coming period, worth making the most of.
We’ll see quite a few wind change this week as a result and an upgrade in S-S/SE swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman
More NE windswell is on the menu likely Thurs as a front approaches and N’ly winds freshen off Southern NSW.
Cold fronts are passing across the Island and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, with tiny amounts of S swell wrap. Nothing of any size its expected due to the zonal and mobile nature of the fetches so you’ll need to find a swell magnet to find anything rideable.
We’re still expecting gale force NW winds to develop Sat, with a chance for N’ly windswell wrap into the NE of the Island.
Sunday sees a strong front push through into the Tasman and a fetch of strong winds below the state should generate a fresh round of S swell to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks under strong W-W/SW winds.