Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Swells becoming large and stormy Thurs, peaking Fri as low hovers off East Coast
• Still solid E swell  Sat AM with S’ly winds
• Easing swells Sun
• Small leftover swells Mon small for the rest of next week

Recap

Onshore winds have developed since Tues with a slow increase in S swell yesterday to 2ft, building further to 2-3ft today under E/SE winds.

This week and next week (Nov 29- Dec 8)

A dynamic weather event is underway as a complex inland low approaches the Far South Coast of NSW, expected to enter the Tasman Sea tomorrow. A moist NE-E/NE infeed into the low is generating plenty of rain (heaviest falls on the South Coast) and building swells from the same direction, focussed on NETas. We’ll see large surf develop across NETas as the low moves offshore tomorrow. The low dissipates early in the weekend with remnants of the system captured by a front Sun and lingering in the Tasman Sea next week to supply small amounts of S to SE swell. 

In the short run surf from the E builds to 5-6ft tomorrow with fresh SE-E/SE winds.

The low remains slow moving through Thurs into Fri with onshore winds continuing and large surf to 6ft+ through Fri.

A front and new high pressure ridge brings a S’ly flow Sat with 5-6ft surf from the E slowly easing during the day.

Easing 3ft surf from the E on Sun will be accompanied by S’ly tending SE winds. 

Into next week and easing swells are on the radar. A large high moves quickly NE with small leftovers from the E/SE Mon to 2ft and NE winds developing.

We may see some small NE windswell Mon PM into Tues but size will be limited by low windspeeds and the fetch quickly being shunted away by a weak, troughy pattern.

That should see marginal 1-2ft swells or less for most of next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll check out afresh.