Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slight bump in S swell Thurs PM, holding into Fri
• Increase in E/NE-NE swell Sat, with a late S’ly change
• Steep rise in S swell Sun as trough of low pressure forms off Gippsland and strong S’ly winds
• Large S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Easing swells next week with mostly small/marginal surf after Tues

Recap

Small S swells yesterday as a front passed by in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches with a small signal of NE swell to 1ft today under SE-E’ly winds.

This week and next week (Nov 22- Dec 1)

We currently have a trough moving north before stalling out on the Mid North Coast, sandwiched between a high pressure belt moving at Tasmanian longitudes. It’s a weak synoptic pattern with no major swell sources- a passing front weakens as it traverses the Tasman, leaving an off-axis fetch parallel with New Zealand. There should be enough minor swell sources of no real quality to stay wet through the short term.

In the short run we’ll see a small flush of S swell tomorrow as another front passes below the state, up into the 1-2ft range with S/SW tending S/SE winds.

That swell holds into Fri morning with offshore winds early, tending variable then mod/fresh N/NE in the a’noon.

Small amounts of NE swell build on Sat as NE winds freshen in response to an approaching trough, with size building into the 2-3ft range in the a’noon under N’ly winds with an a’noon S/SSE change as the trough line moves up over the East of the state.

That trough then deepens o/night Sat into Sun with a building trend in S-S/SE swell under fresh/strong winds from the same direction. We should see surf from 3-5ft build into the 6ft range during the a’noon. You’ll need to find shelter from the wind to find a surfable wave.

Troiugh of low pressure off Gippsland brings plenty of onshore wind and sizey swells

Into next week and we should see large 6-8ft S/SE swells Mon morning before a slow easing as the trough and fetch moves away across the Tasman. Fresh S/SE winds should ease by a notch during the a’noon although surf will remain big and messy.

The rest of the week sees easing swells as the trough moves away and a new trough of low pressure forms in the Northern Tasman, too far north to be a useful swell source for NETas under current modelling.

There is a chance we could see some small E-E/NE swell off this system if it dips low enough in the Tasman later next week but we’re more likely to see easing swells through Tues in the 3ft range and then minor 1-2ft surf at best next week as high pressure approaches then moves over the state.

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.