Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Aug 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Thurs/Fri
• Small NE windswell possible Sat PM into Sun
• More small NE windswell pulses next week as mobile high pressure moves into Tasman
• Strong and gusty NW-W/NW winds next week

Recap

Strong SE swells to 3-4ft yesterday under N’ly winds which whipped up some small NE windswell in the a’noon. Size has eased a notch but we’re still seeing sets to 3ft from the SE with some small NE windswell mixed in and mod/fresh NW winds.

This week and next week (Aug 21-30)

Very spring-like synoptic chart with mobile high pressure moving NE through the Tasman and a NW’ly flow across the island state. A strong zonal pattern with embedded fronts and troughs is under the continent and moving eastwards. That pattern is briefly interrupted by a trough and front today before resetting again over the weekend. No major swell sources on the radar so we’ll see if we can find anything flukey to work with.

In the short run todays NW’ly flow looks to shift more W/NW into tomorrow at mod/fresh paces. Small leftovers form the SE to 1-2ft and some minor NE windswell to the same size should provide a small, rideable wave if you can get out of the wind.

Similar winds for Fri morning with mod/fresh NW-W/NW winds, shifting W/SW briefly as a front passes to the south of the state. Tiny/flat surf is expected with just a micro signal of NE windswell wrap out of Bass Strait.

Into the weekend and with high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see N’ly winds develop off Southern NSW down to Bass Strait and some small NE windswell spikes for NETas.

Expect a small increase in NE windswell from an off-axis fetch (see below) up to 2ft Sat PM with freshening N tending NW winds.

Off-axis fetch sees some small NE windswell Sat PM

Sun should see winds freshen from the NW-W/NW as a trough approaches from the west and surf return back to tiny.

More small NE windswell pulses on offer next week, but the zonal flow is expected to strafe Tasmania with strong and gusty W-W/NW winds for most of next week so surfing conditions will be rugged.

That said, we should see small NE windswell to 2ft on Mon with fresh offshore winds.

Another small spike in NE windswell looks possible Tues into Wed and later Thurs. These are primarily associated with gales out of Bass Strait so we’ll finesse them on Fri and see how they are looking.

Check back then for the latest.