Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Aug 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More N’ly windswell pulses from NW gales out Bass Strait, Sat AM and Sun AM and Mon AM
• Strong and gusty W-NW winds continue over the weekend
• Stronger S swell Tues next week from front pushing up into the Tasman

Recap

Small levels of NE windswell yesterday were in the 1-2ft range, with today seeing a significant increase in size to 3 occ.4ft under fresh to strong W’ly tending NW’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Aug 31 - Sep 6)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Gales out of Bass Strait get more of a NW tilt o/night into Sat morning which should generate another round of N’ly windswell. Expect size to 2-3ft tomorrow morning with the occ. bigger set possible under fresh and gusty NW winds. Surf should ease in the a’noon.

Similar winds for Sun and we should see another small boost in size to 2 occ. 3ft for Sun morning before easing during the day.

We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a  S swell for early next week (see below).

Mon should start see another final burst off N’ly windswell generated by NW gales out of Bass Strait (see below). At this stage we’re looking at another morning of 3-4ft occ. bigger 5ft set from the N with W-W/NW winds early before winds switch W/SW in the a’noon.

The passage of the front then brings some S swell wrap for Tues in the 2-3ft range with W’ly winds, easing quickly during the a’noon.

More small NE windswell is expected later next week. High pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and an approaching inland trough will see winds tilt more NW through Thurs, possibly tending more W’ly Fri or into the weekend with a weak front.

That should generate some small S swell for Fri or Sat. There is some indication of a stronger frontal passage early or later next weekend suggesting a stronger S swell pulse but model agreement is poor leading to low confidence on size and timing. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and report back Mon with the latest updates.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!