Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell Tues from front pushing up into the Tasman with W/SW tending W/NW winds
• Small leftover S swells Wed
• Small NE windswells Wed PM and into Thurs AM with NW winds
• Small into the weekend
• Possibly some small NE windswell over the weekend
• Small S swells likely Tues/Wed next week
• Possibly better S swell later next week- low confidence, check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Small levels of NE windswell yesterday were in the 1-2ft range, with today seeing a significant increase in size to 3 occ.4ft under fresh to strong W’ly tending NW’ly winds.

This week and next week (Sep2 - Sep 13)

After constant gales out of Bass Strait we’ll see a more typical seasonal pattern for the short term with a high in the bight and a strong front pushing into the Tasman as a parent low slips under Tasmania. The front brings a bog standard blast of winter/spring style S swell through the short term, with the high quickly moving into the Tasman. Once that occurs we’ll see swells ramp down quickly with a return to small swells and a northerly pattern for the rest of week and into the weekend.

In the short run, we’ll see some modest S swell to 3ft at S exposed breaks under fresh and gusty W/SW winds which will tend back W/NW in the a’noon as swells ease. 

Small leftover from the S on Wed morning to 2ft at S exposed breaks with mod NW winds tending N’ly in the a’noon. That should generate a small amount of NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

N’ly winds o/night should see NE windswell to 2-3ft Thurs morning before easing during the day. Winds from the NW will shift more W/NW-W as a front passes to the south.

Easing swells into Fri and over the weekend as more zonal frontal activity drives a W’ly tending NW’ly flow over Tasmania. We may see some small N’ly windswell wrap from NW winds out of Bass Strait but confidence is low at the moment due to model divergence. Expect fresh/strong winds over this period and we’ll update swell potential through the week.

Nothing really noteworthy on the charts for the first half of next week. A zonal pattern of frontal activity maintains a W’ly flow through our near Southern swell window and over the Island (nothing as radical as this past week!) with high pressure moving NE into sub-tropical latitudes. We should see a minor front push into the Tasman late Sun into Mon.

That would indicate small S swells possible on Tues/Wed under fresh W’ly winds winds. Models are divergent but we’ll peg it for 2-3ft at this stage.

Following that there is some indication of a deeper fetch in the lower Tasman that may send some quality S groundswell our way later next week. Too early to have any confidence on size of timing but we’ll flag it now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.