Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswells Thurs AM with NW winds
• Small into the weekend
• Possibly some small NE windswell Sun
• Small S swells likely Tues/Wed next week
• Possibly small NE windswell laster next week
• Generally quiet outlook

Recap

We saw S’ly swell to 3-4ft at S exposed breaks yesterday under W/SW tending W/NW winds. Still some leftovers to 2-3ft this morning now easing right back under NW winds.

This week and next week (Sep4 - Sep 13)

The front responsible for the current S swell has skipped across the Tasman and we have a strong high (1030hPa) currently drifting NE off NSW into the Tasman Sea at typical spring latitudes. Once that high moves offshore we’ll see fresh  N’lies to NW’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term but we should see some small episodic N’ly windswells.

In the short run we’ll see small NE windswell through tomorrow under fresh N’ly tending NW winds, with size to 2ft.

That should stay similar or build a notch into Fri with NW winds tending more W’ly as a front passes under the state.

Into the weekend and we’ll see W’ly winds Sat, freshening and tending more W/NW-NW on Sun as a front passes over the state. 

Surf-wise not much in it - tiny surf on Sat.
Sun may see some small N’ly windswell wrap from the winds out of Bass Strait with size building to 2ft in the a’noon.

A front moves into the Tasman o/night Sun into Mon, with a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman expected to linger. Under current modelling the front and parent low look zonal, disjointed and very fast moving and the fetch out of Bass Strait is weaker than previous fetches. 

We should see some minor S swell later Mon into Tues but not offering more than 1-2ft under mod/fresh W/NW-NW winds.

Another frontal system we mentioned on Mon now looks to develop further east and skip away quickly out of our swell window. We’ll have another look on Fri but at this stage it’s looking like not much of a swell producer- possibly sending some small S swell our way Wed next week.

Dual-centred blocking high pressure looks to move into the Tasman next week, suggesting some small NE windswell developing later next week although EC does offer up a small trough of low pressure in the Tasman late next week which may be a source of small E swells.

We’ll see how all of this looks on Fri.

Seeya then.