Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Aug 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fresh pulse of S groundswell Tues with N’ly winds
• Building NE windswell Tues PM
• Mix of easing S/SE and NE windswell Wed with NW winds shifting W/NW-W during the day
• Tiny surf Thurs/Fri
• Small S pulse Sat
• Small NE windswell possible Sat PM into Sun
• More small NE windswell pulses as mobile high pressure moves into Tasman

Recap

Tiny surf on Sat built quickly late Sat into Sun as new S swell filled into 3-4ft under S tending SW winds. Still plenty of size today with sets to 3ft and signs of new S/SE swell filling in with W-SW winds tending variable through the day as high pressure moves over the state.

This week and next week (Aug 19-30)

The weekend's front and trough has cleared the coast, with the last vestiges of the trough tipping NENSW. That front brought a spike in S swell. A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some strong sideband S/SE groundswell due tomorrow. High pressure systems are looking weak and mobile as befits the changing seasons, tracking NE into the Tasman and bringing a N’ly flow across Bass Strait in the short term. Winds quickly shift back to the N leading into the weekend.

In the short run we’ll see strong S/SE-SE groundswell to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks with N’ly winds freshening and developing NE windswell in the a’noon to 2-3ft.

A mix of swells continues into Wed with easing S/SE swell to 3-4ft and NE windswell to 3ft, easing during the day. Winds turn offshore as a low approaches from the Bight with morning NW breezes tending W/NW-W during the day. Both swell sources ease through the a’noon.

Easing swells for the rest of the week with zonal W’ly-W/NW’ly winds fresh and gusty at times and surf dropping right bay to tiny on Thurs and continuing into Fri.

Nothing major for the weekend. A broad but weak and zonal front transits the Tasman from Fri (see below). At the moment wave models are not interested in much swell from this system but we may see small surf from the S on surf Sat, with winds shifting N-NE and freshening in the a’noon. That may bring a small pulse in NE windswell later Sat into Sun.

No major swell sources on the radar to start next week. We’re likely to see another front/trough combo bring W’ly winds early next week with small NE swells surf expected.

A zonal flow below the Tasmania suggests tiny surf from the S.
There is a small low potentially forming near the South Island early next week which generate some workable SE swell into mid next week.

Otherwise, with the mobile high pressure systems moving into the Tasman there’ll be periodic little bursts of NE windswell, which we will dial in through the week.

We’ll see how these flukey swell sources shape up through the week, as well as a complex low gyre moving under the continent next week. 

That has potential for S swells as it enters the southern swell window late next week.

Check back Wed for the latest. 

Seeya then.