Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Aug 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spike in new S swell likely Sat PM with fresh S’ly winds
• Bigger S/SE-SE swell  Sun
• Plenty of size Mon with a fresh pulse of S groundswell Tues with offshore winds
• Easing swells from Wed
• Small S pulses Fri/Sat
• Small NE windswell possible next weekend

Recap

Small fun NE swells to 2ft yesterday under light NW winds, smaller today in the 1-2ft range with winds tending more N’ly.

This weekend and next week (Aug 16-23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast with a trough of low pressure moving NE of the state and deepening tomorrow. That will see early W-NW winds before a  S’ly change early morning and winds freshening in the a’noon. Small NE windswell leftovers to 1-1.5ft early with an a’noon increase in new short range S swell from the proximate fetch, building up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches in the late a’noon. Surf will be very wind affected as winds tend S-S/SE .

Strong S’ly swells Sun as the fetch moves up and northwards past Tasmania will see size to 6ft at S facing beaches, easing during the day. Again, strong S’ly winds will be a problem, but they will ease during the a’noon as the fetch moves northwards and pressure gradients ease .

Lighter winds Mon as high pressure moves across the state. Light land breezes and a’noon seabreezes should see much cleaner conditions with S swells hanging there to 2-3ft occ. 4ft sets t S facing beaches.

We’re still looking at S’ly to S/SE’ly swells next week but the overall evolution of the storms is now not as favourable with more of the energy aimed at Pacific targets. Tues should see better quality S-S/SE groundswell fill in from the deeper fetch in New Zealand longitudes with sets to 4ft at S exposed breaks and light winds tending N-N/NE and freshening during the day which will see NE windswell build to 3ft+.

Easing swells Wed as both swell sources fade away. Should be a mix of S/SE and NE swells to 2-3ft early before easing during the day and winds shifting W’ly as a trough/front approaches.

Easing swells for the rest of next week. A frontal system passing through Bass Strait and into the Tasman next week may offer a small spike in S swell. At the moment it doesn’t look significant, likely producing a brief pulse of S swell in the 2-3ft range Fri, easing Sat. 

A deeper low travelling behind it may supply some better quality S swell (see below).

High pressure sliding NE into the Tasman may supply some small NE windswell late next weekend or early next week. 

Too far off to have confidence in specifics but we’ll see how they look when we come back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!