Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Aug 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swell possible Fri with mostly NW winds
• Spike in new S swell likely Sat PM with fresh S’ly winds
• Bigger S/SE-SE swell possible Sun
• Plenty of size Mon with a fresh pulse of S groundswell later Mon, persisting into Tues with offshore winds
• Small NE windswell possible Thurs/Fri next week

Recap

Small E’ly swells hung in there in the 1-2ft range yesterday under W/SW winds. Remarkably there is still some small, just rideable 1 occ. 2ft surf on offer today with offshore winds.

This week and next week (Aug 14-23)

A summer style pattern is seeing tropical moisture dragged down the East coast by a trough and deep E/NE-NE flow from a large high in the Tasman, generating large stormy swells for QLD, grading smaller as you head down the NSW coast and leading to tiny E/NE-NE swells for Tas. This pattern breaks down as we head into the weekend leaving a broad troughy area of low pressure in the Tasman which is expected to redevelop over the weekend and generate sizey S swells over the weekend and early next week. Models have been all over the place struggling to resolve this complex troughy area but confidence is now firming we’ll see some size from the S-S/SE from this redeveloped system.

In the short run, no real change tomorrow with more W/NW-NW winds and small E/NE-NE swell to 1 occ. 2ft- just rideable for the keen.

We might see a small bump on NE swell Fri with more consistent 2ft sets from the fetch off the NSW Coast. Light NW winds tend light N then NE in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and we’ll see a complex trough move E of the Island on Sat, bringing a S’ly flow. That flow will fresh during the a’noon and we’ll likely see a spike in new S swell through the late a’noon to 4-5ft.

Plenty of size Sun as the Tasman sea trough of low pressure gets supported by a deeper southerly fetch associated with a complex polar low (see below). Expect surf in the 6ft range with fresh S’ly winds, easing during the day.High pressure moves into the Tasman early next week so we’ll see light  offshore winds establish from Mon with size in the 3-4ft range.

Stronger, longer period S swells from the deeper fetch should fill in a’noon Mon to 4ft and be in the water for Tuesdays’ early with size to 4-5ft, easing during the day. Winds should remain offshore NW.

Still some swell around for Wed. A reinforcing fetch is located in New Zealand longitudes early next week and while most of the energy is aimed at Pacific targets we should see some nice sideband swell energy from the S/SE fill in during Wed, supplying some 2ft sets at S exposed breaks.

We may see some NE windswell develop later Thurs into Fri as the high moves across the Tasman but confidence is low this far out.

Further ahead and it looks like easing swells into next weekend but we’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.