We’re midway through the current pattern with a high pressure cell near New Zealand directing fresh NE winds towards Tasmania, weakening trough in the Tasman and an approaching complex low SW of Tasmania.
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Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania.
A major swell is possible from Wed as a deep low may form in a a trough line either E of Tasmania or off the Gippsland coast, possibly moving up off the NSW South Coast - enhanced by extra warm water pooled up in that region.
The high pressure belt remains positioned well to the south with continuing troughiness and NE wind episodes ahead.
The low east of Tasmania supplies plenty of strong S-SE swell through the short term with an easing trend back to small background swells this week.
A much more significant increase in NE windswell is expected for Sun as the fetch ramps up down the NSW South Coast and into Bass Strait.
A trough moving north from a position east of Tasmania brings a renewal of the S’ly pattern today into Fri before the summer pattern slowly resets over the weekend. Any large or moderate swell generating features have disappeared from the charts, alas but there’ll be some fun swell sources for NETas.
This NE windswell should perk up a notch into Wed as a fetch off the NSW South Coast increases in strength and extends into Eastern Bass Strait.
No great change to the weekend f/cast with a weak front having passed the state and a stronger front about to sweep past the Island, bringing new S swell and W, tending SW winds through Sat
A complex inland trough/low is emerging from the Gippsland coast into the Tasman Sea with a fetch of SE-E/SE winds aimed at Tasmania and offering some plenty of E-E/NE swell, easing tomorrow.