Further south a deep polar low and frontal system is generating large swells, with traces of long period S swell refracting back into Eastern Tas over the coming days. A weak, troughy pattern is NE of Tas now with a high pressure system expected to drift over the state through Fri.
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The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across Eastern Tasmania this week.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now drifting SE towards the South Island with an approaching trough tightening the pressure gradient and leading to fresh N’ly winds for Eastern Tasmania .
Monday looks even juicier. An approaching trough of low pressure tightens pressure gradients and the fetch really winds up in the swell window.
Dicey winds and weak windswells this week, a bit stronger on the weekend.
Aim for surf tomorrow out of the wind.
Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea while transient N’ly fetches off the NSW South Coast supply some small, weak NE windswell. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead.
Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term.
Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 21 knots and is located about 413 nm NE of Brisbane. This severe storm is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition through Friday evening, resulting in an expansion of gale to severe-gales around its southern flank as it continues drifting south-east towards New Zealand.
There's not much to work with over the coming days, but next week we'll see strong energy from ex-TC Gabrielle.