Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mostly N’ly winds variable Thurs for a few hrs
• Much stronger NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, slowly easing Sun
• S swell pulses likely next week- with biggest surf Tues and Wed
• More S swell pulses into the end of next week

Recap

NE windswell started to build yesterday with size up into the 2ft range under freshening NE winds. A further increase today is seeing surf in the 2-3ft range with occ. bigger sets under mod/fresh NE winds tending N’ly.

This week and next week (Nov 8- Nov17)

The pattern established on Mon is now well entrenched with a slow moving high in the Tasman slowly being squeezed on the western flank by approaching trough systems. A weak ridge up the sub-tropics has a lighter E’ly flow with stronger N-NE winds south of the MNC down to the South Coast and Tasmania. We’ll see this pattern persist with increasing NE windswell across NE Tas this week. A strong frontal progression is expected to provide a series of S swells next week. 

In the short run and we should see similar size Thurs, at least for the morning under a light morning N’ly flow that tends variable with an easing in size expected.

A rebuild Fri sees size up into the 4ft range as the N’ly fetch reintensifies down Bass Strait.

Plenty of size into Sat as surf builds o/night  with sets to 5-6ft expected and winds tending N’ly then W’ly m befoire. Mid-morning S’ly change as a trough/front pushes through.

Winds shift back offshore Sun as stronger frontal activity below the state drives a W’ly flow across the Island. Easing NE swell to 3ft dropping back to 2ft offers clean leftovers.

Into next week we’ll see a pattern change in swell direction as the first of a series of S swells makes landfall. This first pulse is mostly short period stuff from a front passing SE of Tasmania and some strong winds out of Bass Strait. Offshore 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches looks likely on Mon. 

Longer period S swells are expected as follow-up pulses as a series of powerful fronts with gale to severe gale W-SW fetches move through the Lower Tasman (see below). 

Surf-wise, a small long period pulse Tues looks to be in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches as it builds in the a’noon.

Followed by a much more significant pulse Wed with swell periods in the 13-15 second band. That would suggest some real size at S facing reefs , possibly up in the 6ft range or bigger, grading smaller away from direct S swell exposures. We’ll update on Fri.

Further ahead another frontal intrusion is expected later next week, possibly tracking on a similar path through the lower Tasman, or even pushing NE right up into the Tasman Sea. More S swell either way. 

Lots to keep track of so check back in Fri ands we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.