High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week , before a front and possible low brings another strong S’ly surge with an accompanying S swell next week.
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A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event for NSW, with smaller but still significant S swell expected for Tasmania.
Sunday looks more dynamic as a low forms to the NE of the state and a S’ly fetch extending to the south of the Island generate new S swell.
A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S-SE swell expected.
We should see some small S swell later in the week as a minor front/low pushes into the Tasman before a more substantial S swell event develops late in the weekend/early next week on the back of a cold outbreak and potential deep low in the Tasman.
The weekend will become small and slow, with some new, inconsistent NE swell due next week.
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.
The major swell generator will a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window, bringing quality E/NE swell to NE Tas later in the weekend and early next week.
Small, inconsistent leftovers for the weekend with a N/NE windswell later week.
We still have the trough block pattern in place with the South Pacific low centre contracting away to the NE while a secondary low centre retrogrades back into he Tasman Sea. An anchoring high, is being shunted away with a trough and front expected tomorrow before a new dominant high moves in from the Bight.