Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 6)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell from Tues  persisting through the week
• Mostly N’ly winds possible S change Thurs
• Much stronger NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, slowly easing Sun
• S swell pulses likely next week

Recap

Small weekend of surf with Sat in the 1-2ft range from the S, tiny on Sun and weak and small again today with NE winds beginning to freshen.

This week and next week (Nov 6- Nov17)

Not a great deal to talk about this week, at least as far as our immediate swell windows go. A large area of high pressure has moved into the Tasman and becomes semi-stationary through the week, with inland troughs maintaining unstable weather. The high initially weakens with a lighter onshore flow before re-strengthening as it approaches New Zealand and has the pressure gradient tightened on the western flank by the complex trough systems. That will produce a N’ly flow, expected to increase as the week goes on with increasing NE windswell late in the week and early weekend.

In the short run and light/mod N/NE-NE winds will establish through Mon and Tues with tiny surf Mon and a small developing NE windswell on Tues,up into the 2ft range.

That NE windswell then builds further into the second half of this week as the fetch strengthens off the NSW Coast. Expect building surf into the 3ft range Wed.

It’s likely to fluctuate in the 2-3ft range for rthe rest of the week and hold over the weekend, possibly building further into the 3-4ft range on Fri/Sat.

We may see a brief S’ly change Thurs although there is model disagreement before wind shift back to the North Fri/Sat. 

A stronger change Sun should see winds shift SW-S with easing NE swells.

Into next week and fronts sweeping over the state bring W’ly winds with small swells.

Stronger frontal activity and parent lows are likely to see more significant S swell wrap in during Tues/Wed, provisionally up into the 2-3ft range with bigger S’ly swells possible later next week.

We’ll see how they look on Wed.