Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor surf Thurs with strong offshore winds
• Sizey S swell building Fri, peaking Sat
• S swell easing quickly Sun
• Small, weak surf next week

Recap

Only tiny surf since the last f/cast notes with 1ft swells yesterday continuing into today at similar or less size under S/SW tending variable and and then N’ly breezes. 

This week and next week (Jan31 - Feb9)

The high pressure belt is weak and moving at a more N’ly latitude than we’ve seen this summer, with a troughy pattern in the Tasman and some frontal activity under the SE of the continent continuing. A much stronger front and parent low tracks NE into the lower Tasman late this week with a broad band of gales to strong gales expected to generate some strong S swell late this week and into the weekend. The monsoon remains active with a small sub-tropical low moving E off the QLD coast where it may undergo further development In the Coral Sea in the medium term. A typical summer tradewind band cradles this low next week with plenty of E quadrant swell expected, favouring the sub-tropics for size and not much expected to reach NETas under current modelling.

In the short run we’ll see one of those fronts sweep across the state with a fresh W/NW flow tending SW in the a’noon. Tiny to flat surf is expected with some marginal wind wrap from W/NW gales in Bass Strait.

Friday looks a different story as a complex low and front drive gales to strong gales through the lower Tasman adjacent to SE Tasmania. Friday initially sees mostly mid period S swell to 3ft at S facing beaches, biggest in the a’noon with SW winds tending S’ly late in the day. 

By Sat we’ll see a much stronger pulse of longer period S swell fill in which should see 4-5ft sets at S facing beaches and some outliers at S facing deepwater adjacent reefs with NW winds shifting W/W late in the day. The pulse of longer period S swell in the morning is expected to ease quickly through the day. 

Small leftovers for Sun early in the 1-2ft range with a minor reinforcing pulse from a zonal but powerful low passing under the state brings small 1-2ft S swell in the a’noon. 

Into next week and high pressure moves into the Tasman with weak onshore winds for Tasmania and minor swells to start the week. We may see some NE windswell develop Mon from a fetch off the NSW coast but we'll update on Fri.
The whole week looks small as a series of small fronts pass under the state and bring minor S swell wrap.

There is some model disagreement though so we’ll pencil in a small, weak period next week and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.