Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Feb 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun NE windswell building Mon with NW winds tending S/SE, holding Tues with light winds tending S/SE
• S/SE groundswell likely Thurs PM, holding Fri 
• More S swell  Sat with a reinforcing pulse Sun
• More pulses of S’ly groundswell Mon, and Wed, possibly sizey

Recap

Strong S swell to 4-ft, eased quickly Sat under light N to variable winds. Small S swell leftovers to 1-2ft Sun, kicked a notch during the a’noon and today we have NE windswell to 2-3ft with NW winds ahead of a S/SE change. 

This week and next week (Feb5 - Feb16)

We’ve got a complex pattern playing out at the moment with an inland trough/low approaching the coast, expected to bring a S-S/SE change today in conjunction with a new high moving in from the Bight. A semi-stationary area of low pressure in the Coral Sea is anchoring a broad trade-wind flow with an extended tradeswell event ahead. To the south, a severe gale to storm force fetch off the ice shelf from a retrograding low under the South Island sends a rare S/SE groundswell up the Pipe, with another strong front/low late this week into the weekend expected to generate another pulse of S’ly groundswell late this week.

In the short run we’re looking at small, short range S swells tomorrow to 2ft under light S’ly winds which will tend more N/NE in the a’noon.

A weak front and trough lingering about NETas brings variable winds Wed morning before a weak S-SE change in the a’noon. Not much surf for Wed, just a tiny blend of E/NE and NE swells to 1ft, most likely unrideable. 

High pressure straddles the state Thurs with a light onshore E’ly flow expected. The curveball on Thurs is some rare S/SE groundswell from the current ice shelf fetch which should offer some inconsistent 3ft sets into the mix, building through the a’noon after an undersized start.

S/SE groundswell carries through into Fri with some 3 occ. 4ft sets and offshore winds expected as a strong frontal system passes under the state. Winds may shift SW-S late in the day.

Looking at the weekend and S’ly groundswell from the frontal passage in the Tasman generates plenty of size for Sat with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches. Early SW-S winds shift E-NE during the a’noon.

Winds shift NW-N on Sun and early S swell to 4ft  from a reinforcing pulse eases during the day.

Into next week and high pressure in the Tasman brings a N’ly flow early next week with some small NE windswell possible on Mon and more more S’ly groundswell wrap from a severe gale force storm under the state. Expect some 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches Mon.

Further ahead we should see another moderate/strong frontal system moves into the Southern swell window Tues/Wed next week bringing another pulse of S’ly groundswell Wed next week, likely with some size to it.

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.