Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks is favourably disposed towards Tasmania for swell production, albeit with some periods of unfavourable winds ahead.
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An interior low approaches the coast Sun, moving offshore from the Gippsland Coast and intensifying the NE infeed during the day.
The next cold front is tied to a complex, mid-latitude low and sees gales sweeping up from the Southern Ocean adjacent to Tasmania on Monday.
The low forming just to the E of Tasmania overnight sees fresh SW to S’ly winds develop through the day, with a quick rise in S swell expected through the day.
That leads to a couple of days of small, weak surf before the low shifts East of Tasmania on Thursday.
With reinforcing high pressure now in the Tasman Sea, we’re on track for another round of NE windswell through Sat, as the pressure gradient gets tightened by an approaching trough complex and winds freshen in the East Tasmanian swell window.
This sees the next round of NE windswell building through Sat as the N’ly fetch freshens adjacent to the Island and extends up the Far South Coast during the day.
A much stronger intensification of the fetch occurs Wed, as strong to low end gale NE winds develop off Bass Strait, extending up off the Gippsland Coast.
No change to the headline feature: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now occurring out of Bass Strait through the early afternoon and severe gales expected to form adjacent to the East Coast overnight.
The weekend looks more reliable as the low moves away during Sat, with gales to severe gales on the western flank of the low generating another strong pulse of S swell for Sat. Expect surf in the 3-5ft range during Sat, with fresh W’ly quarter winds during the day.