Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Last pulse of S-S/SE swell Wed, easing quickly Thurs
• Long period SE swell Fri/Sat
• More SE-E/SE swell early/mid next week
• Better quality E-E/NE swell Thurs next week

Recap

Long tail of S swell has supplied plenty of energy since Mon. Yesterday saw size in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches with light winds. Today has eased further with a smaller pulse of energy in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches and NW winds supplying clean conditions.

This week and next week (Jun 15 - 25)

Beautiful settled conditions at the moment with high pressure in the Tasman off the Central NSW Coast and a weakening low and frontal system just west of Tasmania poised to supply a couple more days of W’ly biased winds through the short term. The Southern Ocean gyre is now well to the S and SE of the South Island, generating one last pulse of long period swell for our region. There’s a fresh set of cards to sort through next week with a couple of swell sources on offer. Read on for details. 

Short term and we’ll see the last of the current S swell through tomorrow with 2-3ft surf, easing and light NW winds tending SW through the day but remaining light.

Friday sees long period SE swell from the fetch well below the South Island. Winds look fabulous, light offshore all day and size should be up in the 4-5ft range, albeit a bit inconsistent due to the travel distance. Pencil in Friday.

Onto the weekend and size holds into Sat morning with sets to 4-5ft, easing through the day. Winds don’t look so good, as a weak low and advancing high set up a ridge of S’ly winds along the East Coast. There won’t be too much strength in it, but it will be a factor to deal with.

Onshore winds will increase Sun, with a mix of easing SE groundswell and some small SE windswell on offer. With straight onshore winds, quality will be low but there will be something to ride.

Into next week and high pressure SE of Tasmania maintains an E to SE flow across the Tasman Sea extending out to the South Island. This will provide a signal of E to SE swell, likely in the 2-3ft range Mon, increasing into the 3ft range Tues. Winds will be from the same direction, so expect quality to be impaired. Size eases a notch into Wed as the pressure gradients slacken in the lower Tasman.

By Thurs we’ll be expecting a muscle up in E swell, as a sub-tropical low intensifies around the North Island of New Zealand early in the new week (see below). There’s swell producing fetches both on the inside of the North Island down to Cook Strait- better aimed at Southern NSW and Tasmania- and a fetch north of the North Island, better aimed at subtropical regions. We’ll finesse those fetches as they come into being but for now we are looking at good quality E/SE swell building into the 3-5ft range Thurs under NW to W winds, possibly tending W/SW to SW as a small low spins up off the coast.

Winds out of Cook Strait supply swell for East Coast Tasmania

That low may supply some small E to NE swell into next weekend, but check back Fri for an update on that.