Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More large S swell Mon/Tues next week 
• Last pulse of S-S/SE swell Wed, easing quickly Thurs
• Long period SE swell Fri/Sat
• More SE-E/SE swell early/mid next week

Recap

Lots of large to XL S swell on offer over the weekend with Sat seeing surf in the 5-6ft range under icy W to SW winds. Sunday was massive with surf in the 10ft+ range under offshore conditions. Today has seen easing but still large surf with size in the 5-6ft range and SW to W winds. 

This week and next week (Jun 13 - 25)

The large Southern gyre is now drifting over the South Island with a last front pushing through the lower Tasman today. High pressure is occupying most of NSW and is slowly moving over the coastal region, leading to light winds and settled conditions in the near term. More fronts maintain a synoptic offshore flow for the week and we’ve got plenty of S swell to last the week, albeit at reduced sizes compared to the weekend. The Southern Gyre then sends one more pulse of SE groundswell our way later in the week.

In the short run and we’re looking at S swells ramping down through Tues, with leftover energy in the 4-5ft range, dropping back during the day and offshore W to W/NW winds providing groomed conditions. 

Wednesday see a rebuild as another pulse of S swell being generated by the frontal passage today makes landfall, with sets to 4ft during the morning , easing during the day and offshore W/NW to NW winds.

Thurs will be the low point of the week with morning 2-3ft leftovers becoming small through the a’noon under light W winds, tending SW to S in the a’noon.

Through Fri surf builds again, this time longer period SE swell from a deep fetch located well to the S/SE of the South Island this week (see below) should send a few sets in the 4-5ft range with classic offshore conditions.

This swell then holds into Sat morning before easing through the day. Winds will be a problem though as a new high pressure ridge and small troughy low off the NSW South Coast combine to deliver a S’ly flow, which extends through Sunday.

Into next week and there’s plenty of activity on the radar.

First cab off the rank is a developing fetch of SE winds squeezed between an elongated high and the small, low off the NSW Coast, which is likely to drift into the Tasman. This fetch develops in the Central/Eastern Tasman later in the weekend, well aimed at Tasmania and is likely to supply some mid-period SSE-SE swell through Mon-Wed. Models are moving around a lot on this but we’ll pencil in 3-4ft at this stage through Mon, Tues, increasing through Wed as the fetch aims up more towards Eastern Tasmania and adjust as we get closer.

Longer term and looks like easing surf from mid next week into the weekend, although models are shifting around a lot so check back Wed for the latest.