Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell Mon with strong N/NE winds
• Easing mix of weak E swells with N/NW tending W/SW winds
• Small mid-period E/NE swell for later Wed, easing Thu with W/NW-N/NW winds
• Possible small S swell Sun PM, extending into Mon
• Monitoring low pressure development from mid next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty of size Sat as SE groundswell maintained 3-5ft surf across NETas, with light S to SSE winds. Sunday saw smaller 3ft surf with some mixed in NE windswell creating messy conditions. Size has held in the 2-3ft range today with gurgly conditions as winds remain strong from the NE, tending N’ly later in the day. 

This week and next week (Jun 21 - July1)

We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. Compared to Fridays model runs the fetch now is a little more mobile, weaker and rotates faster out of the swell producing phase, which will see a bit of a downgrade.

There’ll still be some fun waves ahead, mostly from the Cook Strait fetch.

In the short run we’re looking at a small blend of E and SE swells Tues to 2ft with winds shifting from N/NW to W/SW as a front swings across the state. 

The Cook Strait fetch will see a late pulse in E/NE swell Wed to 2-3ft, with early SW winds, swinging N/NW through the a’noon.

Sets to similar size Thurs morning hold fun surf, before easing through the day with all day NW winds offering good conditions.

Fronts sweep across the state Fri/Sat, with W’ly winds and surf becoming tiny/flat. 

Sun offers a little more potential as small low passes the state, and a brief fetch of SW to S winds adjacent to the state brings a brief spike in small S swell to 2ft. 

Into next week and small S swell extends into Mon in the 2ft range.

Surf then eases right back Tues/Wed.

Longer term and a cold front and very strong low are expected to enter the lower Tasman during this period, possibly generating a solid S swell or even interacting with a more tropical derived surface low  and forming a deep low off the Southern NSW Coast (see below). That could generate a solid E swell for East Tas. 

Check back Wed for details.