Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Couple of tiny days Tues/Wed
• Increase in S swell Thurs PM with S'ly winds
• Stronger S swell Fri, with offshore winds
• Small S swell leftovers Sat, tiny again Sun
• Tracking potential NE swell from low drifting south from tropics Tues/Wed, stay tuned for updates

Recap

No surf to speak of this weekend with tiny waves both days. Today has remained in the 1ft range with SW tending NW winds.

This week and next week (Jun 27 – Jul 7)

High pressure moves quickly over interior NSW through Tues/Wed, with no swell producing fetches for NE Tas so we’re looking at a few days of tiny surf to start the week.

Things change Thurs when a strong front pushes into the Tasman, late Wed night into Thurs morning. Compared to Fridays model runs it’s not quite as strong and doesn’t penetrate as deep into the Tasman so swell generating potential has been wound back a notch.

Still, we should still see surf build later Thurs into the 3ft range, with early W to SW winds tending SSW to S during the a’noon.

Into Friday and longer period S swell trains see size bulk up through the day, with sets to 3-4ft early pushing 4-5ft through the middle of the day. Winds should be favourable with light W’lies through the day.

Small levels of S swell should hold in the 2-3ft range Sat, easing back further Sun into the 1-2ft range with mostly W to NW winds providing clean conditions.

Further ahead and we’ll be tracking a potential south-wards moving coast-hugging low which is expected to form off the NSW or QLD coast later this weekend. 

Models are offering divergent outcomes on this scenario with EC maintaining a low much further north with no great surf potential for East Coast Tas.

GFS suggests the low forms much further south and moves southwards early next week dragging a fetch of NE winds with it (see below).

Southwards moving coastal low brings strong NE fetch aimed at Tas. Watch this space

Under this scenario NETas will see a strong pulse of NE swell building Tues up into the 4-6ft range and holding at this size Wed.

It’s really to far out to have any confidence in this scenario so check back Wed as we update the outlook.

Seeya then.