Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mid-period E/NE swell for later Wed, easing Thu with W/NW-N/NW winds
• Possible small S swell Mon, easing Tues
• More S swell Wed/Thurs next week
• Monitoring low pressure development from mid next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Still some 2-3ft sets across the NE corner yesterday with light winds , easing back today into the 1-2ft range with an a’noon kick in new E/NE swell producing some fun waves.

This week and next week (Jun 23 - July1)

A nice, wintry elongated high pressure belt is located over the interior, now drifting over most of NSW, bringing classic settled winter weather to the mainland with weak zonal fronts crossing Tasmania bringing mostly W’ly winds. 

In the short run surf holds in the 2-3ft range Thurs morning before easing back with early SW winds tending variable then swinging back NW during the a’noon. 

Size dips down quickly through Friday with only small leftovers on offer in the 1-2ft range and a W’ly airstream.

Don’t expect much surf for the weekend, with cold and W’ly winds on offer and surf close to flat both days. A tiny wave Sat a’noon in the 1-1.5ft range may be surfable for chunky equipment.

Into the new week and a front and low sweeps up past the state bringing a fresh spike of S swell. With a high moving across Victoria behind it a front and small later Sun into Mon brings SW-S winds and a morning  increase in S swell to 2-3ft (see below). GFS is very much more bullish on this than EC model so a little caution is appropriate as swell models may be overcooking the size a notch.

Surf then eases back quickly Tues in the wake of the front.

Another frontal system later Wed and into Thursday brings another round of bog standard S swell, likely building Wed a’noon into the  3-4ft range, holding at that size Thurs morning before easing. Winds will be mod/fresh SW to SSW during this spike.

Longer term and models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman Sea later next week. A low off the NSW S Coast can’t be ruled out, although models have cooled on this scenario. 

Best check back Fri and we’ll see how the end of next week is shaping up.