No change to the outlook as a massive, slow moving low pressure system in the Tasman and strong high over Tasmania combine to fill the Tasman Sea with gales to strong gales, generating large swells.
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The coming period will be windy, large and limited to selected spots.
Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extended period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.
With good model agreement now there’s high confidence we’ll see a major winter swell event next week as a slow moving low takes up occupancy in the Central Tasman leading to a highly energised stormy sea state over a majority of the Tasman Sea.
Following that we’ve got a spring like week ahead with only some minor E trade-swell to offer up some rideable waves.
A trough of low pressure and front rapidly push into the Tasman during Sat with the low deepening rapidly. Gales will be short-lived as the system is whisked away to the NE but sufficient to whip up a spike in S swell Sun.
The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking less aligned for S swell production.
We have a deep low (985hPa) adjacent to Tasmania and another attached low centre further E in the Tasman with the long E/NE infeed into this complex low gyre focussed near the west coast of the North Island and slowly sliding out of the swell window.
The circulation in the trough line has increased wind speeds in the fetch as the air mass moves from high to low pressure. As a result we’ll see an increase in wave heights and period through tomorrow.
This anchored trough fetch, or trough block pattern is favourable for swell production for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard and will come with mostly offshore winds until the weekend brings a more S’ly biased flow to temperate NSW. We’ll see remnants of a small low at the terminus of the trough get captured over the weekend and generate S swells from the return flow of a regenerated low.