South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E'ly trade- swells hanging in there on a very slow easing trend Thurs/Fri with light N-NE winds in SEQLD, stronger N/NE in NENSW
• Weak S’ly change stalls around Coffs on Thurs
• Small E swells into the weekend with light N’ly winds, stronger in NSW
• Vigorous S-SE change late Sun (NENSW) or Mon (SEQLD) brings short range SE swells Mon, easing Tues
• S swell pulse Mon PM, easing Tues favouring NENSW
• Possible low forming in Tasman next week bringing an increase in S swell Fri - low confidence in specifics, check back Fri

Recap

Small, fun E/NE swells have kept up peaky beachies in the 2-3ft range, perking up a notch yesterday a’noon (3-3ft+ sets) and persisting into this morning. Winds have been N’ly, lighter inshore early and in SEQLD, tending to mod NE breezes in the a’noon. 

Chance to surf the Superbank uncrowded as N'ly winds continued and tradeswell perked up a notch

This week (Dec 4-6)

A long tradewind fetch anchored by a 1024hPa high in the central SW Pacific is slowly retreating eastwards with a weak high cell expected to migrate into the Tasman overnight and tomorrow in the wake of a shallow trough now moving up the NSW Coast and expected to stall and wash out around the lower reaches of the MNC. Some decaying and fast moving frontal activity in the lower Tasman is currently scooting across that sea. Once the new high sets up shop in the Tasman we’ll see the N-NE flow which has been a constant for a month reset until another S’ly change arrives on the weekend. No major swells ahead as the pattern of weak, mobile high pressure continues but there’ll be some windows of opportunity with small NE windswell and minor flushes of S swell. Details below. 

In the short run there’s not much happening -E’ly tradeswells will ease out into the 2ft range (very occ. 3ft set!) but we should see lighter winds as the trough stalls about the MNC- just tickling Coffs with a morning SW-S breeze before winds tend N-NE again. North of Coffs we should see a light morning flow before a’noon NE breezes. 

Similar surf Fri with just a smidge of S swell from todays front, mostly privileging S magnets in NENSW for a 2ft wave with the occ. bigger set. The early flow from the NW will quickly tend to N-NE breezes and kick up to mod paces as the high moves NE into spring/summer position. 

This weekend (Dec7-8)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure moves NE into the slot near the North Island, the N-NE flow freshens and extends northwards up the coast and we’ll see a small blend of NE windswell and E/NE swell in the 2ft range with a tad more NE windswell on the MNC. No great quality expected under light N’ly winds, tending N/NE at mod/fresh paces during the day.

A front passing to the south, tied to a parent low and northwards moving trough bring another S’ly change Sun. Early N’ly winds, persisting all day in SEQLD with the change reaching Coffs in the late a’noon and border after dark. NE windswell tops out around 2-3ft on the MNC, grading smaller with increasing N’ly latitude and bottoming out below 2ft north of Cape Moreton.

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

As stated on Mon, the following high moves quickly into the Tasman in the new week, moving NE and weakening. We’ll still see a mod/fresh SE flow on Mon as the trough and high hold a firm pressure gradient along the sub-tropical coast but by close of play winds will already be moderating and tending more E/SE-E. A mix of short range SE swell to 3ft with longer period S swell filling in during the a’noon offers a chance of small peelers on the Points or some more raggedy options at semi-protected areas.

Back to N’ly flow Tues with easing S and SE swells and small surf into Wed. 

There’s reasonable model agreement on a trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman mid next week but poor run to run consistency so expect some major revisions. We may see a flush of S swell develop Fri into Sat as winds on the SW flank of the trough generate S swell. We’ll pencil in 3-4ft for now and see how it looks Fri. Following that more weak, mobile high pressure suggests a rapid return to small NE windswells with a broad but weak tradewind fetch putting a floor under wave heights with a background signal to 2ft. We’ll revisit that scenario on Fri. 

Seeya then.