Some modest frontal activity pushes through late in the week with a developing N’ly flow on Sun set to provide some NE windswell. Looks like more of the same next week with a fluctuating trough remaining semi-stalled along the NSW coast bringing mostly N'ly winds and small, weak swells.
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High pressure drifts into the Bight but weakens as the week progresses with a weak high cell budding off and moving NE into the Tasman. The result is a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman and inland- unstable but not very surfy.
A complex but disjointed low has formed in the Tasman with diffuse centres off the North Coast and Tasmania/Gippsland coast. We’ll see various S swells generated by proximate and distal fetches from this system over the weekend and into next week.
That will see a S wind change and some, windy but sizey S swells through the end of the week into the weekend. Lingering troughiness in the Tasman may see yet another low form next week- which would be the 4th successive surface low to form in October.
The current low located near Lord Howe Island dissipates through today with easing winds along the Eastern Seaboard as a result. Weak pressure gradients then occupy the Tasman through the mid week, offering up good conditions as a long range E swell makes landfall.
A low is expected to move E of Tasmania o/night and form a broad low pressure trough in the Tasman driving N-NW’ly then S’ly winds up the coast before moving NE as a surface low over the weekend. That will be the second surface low in succession to form in the Tasman and we may yet see a third develop later next week.
In the tropics a trough deepening between Vanuatu and Fiji forms a broad surface low which tracks southwards through the wide open South Pacific slot between the North Island and tropical island chains, generating some tasty E’ly swell next week.
Surf now looks fun without being spectacular. A polar low passing to the south is sending long period S swells up the pipe. A modest but broad trade fetch in the Coral Sea is supplying some small E’ly tradeswell.
We have a broad front passing into the Tasman and a northwards moving trough, with a high pressure ridge filling in behind those short range features. The front will supply workable levels of S swell Sun but winds will be a problem with a a mod/fresh S’ly flow, tending SE’ly- E’ly during the day.
The current S swell will ease through tomorrow with a pair of cold fronts passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri ahead of another trough and high pressure ridge. In short, we’ll see pulses of S swell but favourable winds will be short-lived.