South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Nov 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE swells this weekend under a light onshore flow
• Freshening N’lies Sun, with NE windswell on the MNC
• NE windswell Mon with clean conditions before a S’ly change (late on the MNC)
• Small flush of S/SE swell Tues under mod SE winds
• Mod SE winds Wed/Thurs tending more E’ly on Fri
• Small SE-E/SE swell maintains a surfable wave Wed-Fri, tending to small, fun tradeswell by next weekend
• Another small S swell Wed PM, easing Thurs
• Slightly bigger S swell Fri PM, persisting into Sat AM
• Tracking a possible low or E’ly dip in Coral Sea later next week, low confidence in specifics , check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Small blend of S and SE swells to 1-2ft yesterday, with clean conditions early before an onshore S-SE flow that freshened in the a’noon. A few semi-clean options around this morning with light winds, although tending S-SE through the day. Size is around 2ft on open beaches and offering a rideable wave at the grovel end of the spectrum.

A couple of small, silky ones for the dawny

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure moving into the Tasman today strengthens over the weekend with a ridge along the east coast tending to E’ly breezes on Sat. Not much swell energy to work with on Sat - just a small blend of S swell and short period SE-E windswell from the high. That should hold a 1-2ft wave on the open beaches but expect that E’ly to be up early, before reaching mod/fresh paces by the a’noon. 

We’ll see the NE flow ramp up on Sun across the MNC, grading lighter the further north you go,  as an approaching front and cut-off low really tightens the pressure gradient. Expect mod/fresh NE winds to reach fresh/strong paces across the lower end of the f/cast region (Yamba-Port Macqaurie) with lighter winds in the north (Tweed-Byron to SEQLD). In the north we’ll see small E’ly windswells to 2ft with NE windswell building to 3ft+ south of Yamba. 

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

Monday brings more NE windswell to the MNC-North Coast with size to 3ft. Elsewhere, surf will be mostly small SE-E swells from the top of the high, offering a 2ft wave with the occ. 3ft set. Early light winds from the NW-W will tend N’ly before a late S’ly change across the MNC.

We’ll see a small flush of S-S/SE swell Tues the trough pushing northwards with light winds early tending S-SE. No great size Tues, with S exposed breaks up into the 2 occ. 3ft range and mostly wind affected. There may be some micro peelers on the Points suitable for logs on low tide.

Wed should see a slight better S swell signal from a decaying fetch passing through the lower Tasman related to Mondays change. Expect some longer period S swell to build through the a’noon up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. SEQLD will be tiny from this source with small S/SE-SE swells holding a weak surf to 1-2ft. Winds remain S-SE but with only light/mod windspeeds there should be some workable options around for a grovel.

Unfortunately, compared to Wednesday's notes, we’re not looking at any major low pressure development in the Tasman next week from the trough. We will see light/mod SE-E/SE winds through Tues-Fri with Wed’s S swell easing quickly through Thurs and only small leftovers and residual SE-E/SE windswell (2ft or so) on offer.

We did mention a S groundswell on Wed and this now looks to be more substantial in the absence of a Tasman low.  A beefy fetch tracking through the lower Tasman Tues/Wed should see a swell front push through later  Fri with sets to 3-4ft across NENSW S facing beaches, 2ft in SEQLD at S magnets.

Further ahead and we should see some small E’ly tradeswell by next weekend with high pressure in the Tasman and a troughy pattern remaining across the continent. Nothing solid on the radar so we’ll expect S swell persisting into Sat (3-4ft across NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches) before easing and small E’ly swells Sun. There’s some model guidance about potential low pressure or an E’ly dip in the Coral Sea later next week which offers some hope for wave starved QLD surfers for something a bit juicier. We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!