South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Nov 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush of SE swell Tues across the MNC under mod SE winds
• Small S swell mix with SE-E/SE swell Wed under SE winds
• Mod SE winds Wed/Thurs tending more E’ly on Fri
• Winds more E-E/NE south of Yamba
• Small E/SE swell in the mix Wed/Thurs
• Building tradeswells from Thurs, holding in at mod levels Fri-Sun under E’ly winds
• S swell pulse in the mix Fri/Sat
• E’ly tradeswells hold in there next week, although down a notch from the weekend’s peak

Recap

Not much on the table for Sat with small, grovelly  windswells to 1 occ. 2ft and mod onshore E tending E/NE winds. We saw a building trend in NE windswell Sun as winds freshened with size up into the 2-3ft  range by close of play. Back down to 2ft or less this morning under mod/fresh N’ly winds. Another very forgettable weekend with waves for the keen.

Better conditions and a little more size across the MNC

This week (Nov 18-22)

We’ve got a sharp little front passing under Tasmania at present, with another front and parent low transiting the Tasman Tues/Wed. A large high is approaching from well south of the Bight and expected to occupy the Tasman from Thurs, with a more summer style wind pattern of SE-E winds in the sub-tropics and NE winds in temperate NSW. Tradewinds will supply workable swells for the sub-tropics medium term with small pulses of S swell this week favouring NSW. There is a fetch off the North Island at present that isn’t perfectly aligned but it should add some small E/SE swell into the mix this week. 

In the short run we’ll see a northwards moving trough bring a fresh S-SE change tomorrow, reaching the North Coast late morning and pushing into SEQLD through the a’noon. N’ly winds ahead of the change and small windswells to 2ft with a late kick in new SE windswell across the MNC to 2 occ. 3ft on offer. No real quality expected so keep expectations low.

Winds will continue from that general SE direction on Wed (more E/SE south of Yamba) so expect a bumpy surf apart from north facing Points which will be clean but small. There’ll be some energy in the water, mostly short range SE-E/SE swell from winds feeding into the trough but also some workable S swell to 2-3ft across NENSW. E/SE swell from the top of the North Island adds some energy into the mix which may prove useful at getting into the Points and offering some fun peelers. Look with onshore winds it’ll be a day where it’s hard to find a quality wave but there will be enough size for a shortboard surf if you aren’t too fussy (or fussy at all!)

Similar winds for Thurs- a general SE flow tending more E’ly on the MNC. We’ll see a small mix of E/SE swell from the top of the North Island and S swells both in the 2-3ft range. Through the day we should start to see E-E/SE tradeswells build a notch into the 2 occ. 3ft range. Onshore lumpy/bumpy beachies and some small peelers on the Points is on the menu.

That tradeswell should be chugging away by Fri getting up into the 3 occ. 4ft range across SEQLD and Far Northern NSW, just a notch smaller south of Yamba. Wed’s stronger frontal passage looks to supply stronger S swell to end the working week, pushing wave heights up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches through the a’noon on the MNC, showing just on close of play across the North Coast. Similar winds with SE breezes across SEQLD, tending more E/SE into NENSW and E’ly even E/NE’ly into the MNC.

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

Fun sized tradeswells should offer up the most energetic surf zones we’ve seen for a while with size hovering around the 3 occ. 4ft range over the weekend, a notch smaller south of Yamba. Keep expectations pegged low for quality though as winds shift more straight E’ly, making even the protected Points a bit wind affected. South of Yamba we’ll see winds shift more E/NE and even NE through Sat. 

Rinse and repeat for Sun. E’ly winds with tradeswells to 3ft or so and some messy rideable peelers on the Points with chunky onshore beachies for those wishing to avoid the crowds.

Next week (Nov25 onwards)

Dominant high pressure slowly moves NE next week with the prevailing E tending NE wind remaining established through the early to mid half of the week under current modelling. That suggests continuing E’ly tradeswells coming down off a peak but holding in the 2-3ft range Mon-Wed and slowly tapering off through the end of next week.

We may see a trough bring a S’ly change mid week, with no real surf potential behind it. 

Check back Wed for the latest.