South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More small surf from the E this week- peaking Tues PM/Wed AM- with light N-NE winds in SEQLD, stronger N/NE in NENSW
• Small E swells into the weekend with light N’ly winds, stronger in NSW
• Vigorous S-SE change late Sun (NENSW) or Mon (SEQLD) brings short range SE swells Mon, easing Tues
• Smaller swells from mid next week
• Still tracking possible juicier swells- potential for low to form off QLD Coast - models are all over the shop so check back on Wed for latest updates

Recap

E’ly tradeswells kept up a steady drumbeat of surf over the weekend- basically in the 3ft range, a little less consistent on Sun. N’ly winds confined cleanest conditions to backbeaches although there were periods of lighter winds and reversals around thunderstorms which were a feature over the weekend. Surf is still hanging in there in the 2-3ft range today with light morning winds, now tending mod N-NE in a hot, humid flow. 

A bit wobbly but still some fun, peaky beachbreaks around as E'ly tradeswells hang in there

This week (Dec 2-6)

Stability and sunshine will be short-lived for temperate NSW, non-existent for the sub-tropics as another complex trough system moves towards the Eastern Seaboard. A shallow, troughy change mid-week looks to stall around Seal Rocks before weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on our persistent trade-swell, which looks to ease off mid-week as the fetch retreats eastwards. A more vigorous S’ly change on the weekend should see a spike in S-SE windswell early next week before the pattern of small E swells resets. 

In the short run we’ll see the N’ly flow hold through Tues and Wed at light/mod paces in SEQLD, tending to mod/fresh a’noon winds from areas south of Byron. E’ly tradeswells hold in the 2-3ft range through Tues with a small kick from a last bit retrograding fetch near New Caledonia today.

That little boost into the 3ft range should persist into Wed so more fun waves at backbeaches with SEQLD open beaches clean to semi-clean under light morning breezes and potential midday glass-offs. 

Slowly easing E swells for the rest of the working week. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman Thurs with the trough disrupting the N’ly flow. That should see a lighter NW-W breeze inshore early before light/mod N’ly winds in the a’noon. We’ll see that E’ly tradeswell slowly ease off in both size and consistency with mostly 2ft waves and the very occ. 3 footer still on offer. 

We’ll see similar sized surf for Fri with early light NW-N breezes shifting light N/NE during the day. Nothing special but another fun day at backbeaches with morning winds light enough to most open beaches to be workable. 

This weekend (Dec7-8)

High pressure will be near the North Island by the weekend with a light/mod N’ly flow extending through the region, lighter in the north, more vigorous on the MNC. Winds should be light enough early in SEQLD for a fair swathe of open beaches to be surfable under a small E swell signal hanging in there in the 2ft range with the very occ. 3ft set. In NENSW, expect a windier outlook for N’lies, possibly exacerbated by upwelling which increases windspeeds as temperature gradients increase between land and sea. 

Same again for Sun morning although E swell will be really bottoming out to the 1-2ft range. Winds will stay N’ly all day in SEQLD with a northwards moving trough in advance of a high pressure ridge bringing a vigorous S-SE change to the MNC mid/later a’noon and the Far North Coast late a’noon/dark. We’ll finesse the timing of the change during the week.

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

High pressure moves over Central NSW quickly in the new week, so SE winds look to peak Mon, before easing Tues as the trough washes out. A mix of S-SE swells should peak Mon in the 3-5ft range offering up a few options although nothing of any great quality is expected apart from some small peelers on the Points.

By Tues, that swell will be on a  decline with a few small days ahead as high pressure moves NE and we see a return to a light/mod NE flow.

Some small NE windswell is a possibility during this period.

Further ahead and models are really struggling to resolve the troughiness in the Tasman Sea. GFS is suggesting a broad trough of low pressure in the Tasman which may see a modest increase in E’ly swells towards the end of next week. That model then favours a low forming in the Coral Sea into next weekend, possibly as a compact hybrid system off the QLD Coast (see below).

EC is favouring a low forming in the lower Tasman late next week, potentially forming a large low off the Gippsland coast and large swells for Tasmania and southern NSW.

We’ll take both of these outcomes with a grain of salt for now and see how they look on Wed. 

Seeya then.