We have a follow-up front and trough expected to push into the Tasman later Sat, this time backed by a monster high (1042 hPa) in the Bight. Steep pressure gradients will create near gales to gales in a proximate S’ly fetch and whip up plenty of sizey S swell later Sun
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A trough between them moves offshore tomorrow forming a fast moving trough of low pressure in the Tasman, which tracks rapidly NE. We’ll see a spike of S swell from this system, downgraded from Mon. A following front and trough now looks stronger, earning an upgrade.
Thursday looks like a dynamic day. A trough deepens and inflames a strong S’ly flow along the NSW coast, extending into the Tasman.
Models are still struggling to resolve this trough but there are reasonable grounds to suggest the trough may deepen and form a surface low in the Tasman late next week.
Once that high moves offshore we’ll see N’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a weak trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term.
The front brings a bog standard blast of winter/spring style S swell through the short term, with the high quickly moving into the Tasman.
We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a sizey S swell for Tues/Wed next week.
The gale force fetches out of Bass Strait are supplying small S’ly pulses favouring Central/Mid North NSW. A slow moving low in the South Pacific will supply some very inconsistent background E swell into the weekend and next week.
The pattern of strong, zonal W’lies tied to polar lows and embedded cold fronts and weak mobile high pressure won’t offer much north of Seal Rocks but we will see some small S swells generated by gales out of Bass Strait this week with a mostly NW-W flow across southern NSW and NW-N in the sub-tropics. There’ll be a few small windows, favouring the MNC.
There is also a risk of northerlies through this period, but we’ll take a closer look at the specs on Monday.