Extended period of large cyclone swell imminent as TC Alfred drifts southwards
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28 Feb)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- A’noon increase in size Sat as TC Alfred moves south
- Further increase in size likely from Sun as TC Alfred continues south
- Extended period of large surf now highly likely as TC Alfred or remnants becomes slow moving in Coral Sea next week
- Coastal crossing with gales and XL storm surf still a possibility later next week
- Buckle up and stay tuned for updates!
Recap
Surf has continued to pulse in the 3 occ. 4ft range across the region since the last f/cast. Light winds in the morning have opened up a few more spots, although SE winds have been persistent in SEQLD. All in all, plenty of fun surf favouring the Points with lots more to come.
Dreamy but crowded if you want to get out of the wind
This weekend (Mar 1-2)
No great change to the weekend forecast. In the Coral Sea, Severe TC Alfred (currently borderline Cat4 central pressure 956hPa, expected to weaken to Cat 3 during the day) is crawling slowly SE to Southwards. TC Seru is SE of New Caledonia and weakening to tropical storm status through today as it slowly moves south-eastwards and then stalls.
Across the weekend we’ll see winds from the SE north of the border, tending more E’ly into NENSW and E/NE into the MNC. Light winds south of Ballina through Sat and possibly into Sun morning but apart from that, winds will favour the Points and more sheltered break walls.
Plenty of swell is on track for arrival. There’ll be a general upwards trend over the weekend- slow and steady unless Alfred decides to accelerate. Those burning petrol will need to keep swell direction on the radar and this should remain north of east over the weekend.
Expect surf to build from 3-4ft up to 4-5ft on Sat.
Through Sun we should see surf up into the 6ft range with bigger sets.
Inside points will still have plenty of swell due to the swell direction but will be smaller than Outer, more exposed points.
All in all, there should be stacks of surf on the Points with a few beachies options for those keen to paddle, more likely south of Yamba.
Next week (Mar 3 onwards)
OK. Under current modelling, most major models have TC Alfred, or a sub-tropical cyclonic descendant of it, slow moving off the SEQLD coast early next week possibly drifting erratically through the whole week. That leads to high confidence for an extended period of very large surf in the sub-tropics, possibly of an historic nature in terms of size and duration.
Surf in excess of 6ft is probable Mon.
Depending on the still highly uncertain movement of TC Alfred, which is expected to become erratic during this timeframe with all options still on the table including a SEQLD/Wide Bay coastal crossing, we may see the lower wind-field of Alfred or ex-Alfred become continuous with a developing SE-E/SE fetch along the trough line.
Under that scenario, we’d see large to XL swells for the sub-tropics from Tues, likely in excess of 10ft, and extending into the end of the week.
Swell direction will depend on the position of the cyclone but is likely to tend more E through E/SE and even SE- which will see large size reductions on true north facing Points in SEQLD.
Error margins still remain relatively large as we head into the second half of next week due to the erratic movement expected from the cyclone or sub-tropical hybrid system it may evolve into. This mostly concerns a potential coastal crossing late next week as a diminished cyclone or sub-tropical storm which would bring onshore gales, XL storm surf on the southern flank of the storm and potential coastal damage including from wind, storm surge and flooding.
If you are chasing sub-tropical point surf at the classic locations it may be a good time to consider a road trip before that- notwithstanding the fact that even most of those waves may be over-powered during the peak of the swell or if we get a coastal crossing.
Other-wise, watch this space, we’ll update below the line (in QLD notes) as information comes to hand.
Seeya Mon and have a great weekend!
Comments
wow
""Under that scenario, we’d see large to XL swells for the sub-tropics from Tues, likely in excess of 10ft, and extending into the end of the week.""
:-)
I hope there's no backtracking or downgrading required.
To be honest, I can't recall a similar system in terms of duration spent lollygagging in the Coral Sea, especially in that position.
TC Rewa hung around a long time but went up down and sideways, mostly right up north.
Didn't Winston hang in there for a while - I recall during that period there was either Winston, or the one after him that spun for ages
Bloody hell mate.. the forecast model on the site just more than halved the predictions.
Tell me it's not true.
bye bye banks.
My local beachie's in dire need of a chiropractic adjustment anyways
Same and I'm actually optimistic because the multiple big south swells last year fucked them, maybe a big NE swell can fix them?!
This afternoon's GFS run has gone for a major downgrade. But GFS has been all over the shop the past week, who knows what it will spit out on the next model run. Personally I'll be happy with the downgrade.
yep, it can downgrade as much as possible IMO.
Not interested in this one, just keep on hoovering that hot surface water Al.
interesting how so many models try and predict . The latest i’ve seen on wind finder which is my go to for fishing is it gets to about level with Rocky on Monday morning and starts heading to Vanuatu and starts scaling down and by thursday it’s all over .
Sounds nuts.
Great read FR and loved Craigs cyclone track analysis article.
Cheers.
Wow.
Possible unprecedented duration of giant perfect waves but then the jet skis head to murwillimbah….
The iPhone was showing anniversary photos today. Let’s keep our collective fingers crossed that Alfred keeps his distance and provides the sheepdog call without the mayhem.
I think you ass#$@es are in for a good run. Waaa. Cyclone moving se then pushing more east. Thinking ov moving to swellnets office downstairs so I can watch through
Ye
Powerlines
Im a little shocked its been so powerful and spinning around
all this time and the swell is so small where is all the swell going.
Timor
windy ec model has it line dancing around the toc or just south , with a crossing around the frazer coast region late next week
thoughts ??
EVERYONE HEAD TO NOOSA!!!
Is that you Boogie down man?
Then snapper
Boogie Fever will welcome everyone to Noosa with open arms.
chargers up for north scoring
Long Time Listener , first time ( in a long time caller ) .....
Regardless of where this THING ( for want of better term ) finally ends up or just ends .
This will go down as one Epic event .... Bleeding i'm scheduled to be arriving in the region 2 weeks late . Starting to worry my accom will be washed away to be honest . At very least the points maybe all ruined . ! If it acts anything like the lastest run i've seen on my preferred ( non surf ) weather models then theres going to be some serious coastal damage . Not sure i've ever seen a Cyclone / Hybrid that far south hang around and wobble with two retrogrades like this latest forecast . Hopefully far enough east to not see Extreme rainfall on top of Storm surge .
Gonna be wet north of the border.
Biblical wet.
Pretty average this morning. Full and wobbly. Meh so far
There were some real strong sets yesterday arvo.
Thanks for all these great write ups over the years.
I’m using this last dry day Saturday to prepare the home and quiver in northern nsw. I have two questions.
Does it seem possible there will be clean wind windows while the swell holds? Is it worth the fair drive to dig up my 8’? Or is all this size also come with the easterly wind?
Is there a real chance of major (historic) flooding northern nsw events associated with Albert back from the coast? The system looks well positioned to dump big time but rainfall predictions seem fairly modest.
Thanks!
This was great advice on two fronts.
Thanks!
Go get the 8'0
And Buy a New Leggie for it .
I'd say yes to both.
Goldy points more likely to get massive and clean.
Nothing set in stone though- all provisional on what TC Alfred does.
I'd be prepared for any eventuality, including coastal crossing with gales and flooding.
Lumpy windswell this morning that an offshore couldn't clean up. Not the best start to autumn but getting some paddling in before some nice surf next week.
I didn’t even clock it was autumn!
On the bom interactive model map shows the system moving se then does a full west push into south East Queensland. Is bom any good?
As good as any other. Just gotta ride it out and see what happens
6 named storms in the southern hemisphere recorded last week, wtf!
Can’t wait to see the footage to come out of this. Point breaks only for a system this powerful?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2...
One positive for any potential shit show in the NR / SEQ is that we’ll be in to the neap tides by the end of the week.
Some nice Chunky ones at Agnes ATM
Just saw someone mow down a few people on a set wave, on the cam!
Maxing out now. Random bombie way outside and mess through the line up
wow, that ability (or lack of) is something to be scared of out Noosa.
Haha
Bloody hell, who let the German back packers take over the line up? I wish skill levels at Cooly were that low!
Not just skill levels, quality a bit low for Noosa in this clip too.
But I appreciate the vid, can't see around the headland on the cams
Haha, jeezus! And is that a guy with a head net on at 1:33!
I think its an old boy hasn't shaved for a bit. Was sorta going OK until he absolutely totalled the paddler!
Mad kookery yikes
Agnes Water cam looks ready to get blown away ...
Noosa was about 4-6 foot this afternoon but the swell wasn't hitting the points that well. Not really a wave at tea tree and only a few out.The best wave was behind the rock at boiling pot and some absolute gun surfers getting 3 - 4 second barrels. The sweep spread out the crowd but for a 2 hour session the average punter was lucky to get a handful of waves. See what tomorrow brings.
How was it 4-6 and tea tree not breaking? No sand?
Was breaking wide and reforming in the bay, might have improved as the tide filled in.
Was there this arvo. Good summary.
Yep.
Latest model runs all firming on a coastal crossing in SEQLD or NENSW with a system that may still pack a serious punch.
From BOM cyclone tech notes: Continued weakening is forecast over the weekend before a plateauing
of the intensity at category 2 on Monday. From late Monday the system may
experience some baroclinic influences as it moves under a new amplification in
the upper trough to the south. However, guidance varies in the extent of this
influence. The system may well retain or redevelop its tropical cyclone
characteristics with along-track SSTs remaining above 26.5C and TC wind fields
persisting in most guidance after this interaction.
Could still come ashore in SEQLD as a Cat 2 storm.
You think there’s a small chance the thing disintegrates in the coral sea due to wind shear?
If it crosses as predicted, gee goldy and NNSW are in for some rain. Glad it’s been a bit dry the past month or so.
Possible. Hopeful.
Me too. I was in NQ for cyclone Yasi in 2011. Long, terrifying, hot night and just an absolute shit show for so long after. She was a Cat 5.
Anyone who froths these are selfish. I don’t mean weather boffins who take an interest, but people who are hoping for a some epic NE swell whilst a poor town or two get totalled.
This is exactly what we didn’t want. Fingers crossed for a change.
This could be unprecedented.
I'd prefer precedent!
Note to self -
Get a lump of cash out, maybe a grand.
Fill up the car.
Do a big shop at the local IGA
Add gumboots and a rubber ducky to that list @andyM.
Hope all goes well for you all there.
Cheers mate. Thanks for the well wishes.
;-)
Thanks SR!
I’m sure it’ll be all good.
Good advice AndyM! Thanks for the reminder. Might add to the list fresh batteries, transistor radio, battery operated lamp, refill gas bottle for camp stove, store 40-50L of clean fresh water and perhaps get eskies ready for freezer contents. Then get a shitload of stuff up as high as possible and just hope for the best!
Did all that yesterday Andy.
Just in case.
Yep will do today after 3 days or so of the models lining up. Gotta cyclone prep the boat as well which I never thought I would need to do in BNE. Watch the insurance premiums sky rocket.
Fingers crossed it weakens and changes track, not looking good currently with the population centres so dense along this coastal section
Sincere best wishes from across the Ditch, fellas.
It's all going to head south pretty quick it looks. Where it bullseyes is still up for grabs but tons of rain coming, literally.
Has anyone lucked into some good waves from this system yet?
Yep.
Windy has 400mm plus rain accumulation over the course of the system for the NR
:(
Not looking good but one thing we have learnt is these systems are very unpredictable. Let’s hope for a miracle
I wonder how much more size the well sheltered points are going to be able to take before its just a right off for the paddlers? I'm hoping to have an all day sesh tmr - hoping for an as good as it gets sesh, but I feel I might be disappointed.
Monstro beach destruction north of Tweed come Tues/Wed i reckon.
Hate to think it but this is the sort of system that will test all those houses built on the goldy and sunny coast low lying canals if it does a direct hit later in week as it looks it might. Gonna be alot of water rising along the coast along with the rain.
Stay safe all.
joined the fun at noosa this morning, 4 laps for 6 waves in 2hrs ,l/c through to main , 2 crackers , sweep was more evident today .
pretty satisfied ,
now to prepare for Alfreds destruction
Good viewing at Moffs, groms getting worked haha, few makeable ones in the middle. South end beachies getting smashed, victory at sea, trees floating around, washing up into the grassed dunes through Dicky's/Curras. I'd be stressing if I lived at Golden. Drainage in the new estates around the traps going to be tested!
drainage will be tested no doubt
Really pretty big on the sunshine coast right now. Be 6 foot plus in front of the sick playground in Mooloolaba. 0 people out at Alex which is a first
Cheese was clean on my way back, not just closeouts.
Agnes has gone offshore. Was a mess this morning. He’s heading our way.
Any one surf Mooloolabah?
Went down to beach out front, lots of erosion and some wild seas....
Moffs shorey had a few...
had a look, looked alright, mainly close outs though and fair crew on it
Cheers wavie.
Was going to head up for look but went with girls nrl instead. Whipping the poms....
Lots of wing foilers on the banks just inside of river mouth.
Used to hit the left off Deadmans when I was living up there 25 years ago.
Good fun a lid.
Couple of other novelty waves / slabs around I would hunt out on these swells. Body wouldn’t handle them anymore
Pulsey this morning, inconsistent 4-5ft with a couple of random 6ft+ bombs and just now came in with super wide 5-6ft sets hitting a point. Swell had to have a bit of north in it.
Christ I hope for Lismore’s sake that rain in the northern catchment doesn’t eventuate. Come on Huey, give them a break.
Ken Oath
BOM calling a GC crossing as possible
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/coolangatta.shtml
Indeed
here's a thorough breakdown of it.
As has been mentioned above, all the crew in the Northern Rivers and Goldy...if you haven't prepared, the next coupla days are a great chance to.
This system is no joke.
Thanks, mate, isn't this the same dude that said categorically a few days back that there was no chance of a coastal crossing? Seems that with cyclones these guys can say anything and have a good chance of landing an accurate forecast. As a border dweller though, this is going to be a big event either way. Hope you're safe where you are
Ahh shit!! Sorry mate! Got sucked in by the algorithyms! haha.
Well him being wrong will be a blessing.
Stay safe there mate. Better to be safe and prepared regardless.
Thinkin of ya all up there. Must be an uneasy feeling.
Yeah if I remember correctly, this guy will just take the most extreme screeenshot, describe for 20 minutes (not analysis, just description) and repeat daily. As Surfalot said, it's a numbers game to some, like any other YT category of video.
If it's 8ft now, Wednesday morning is going to be interesting
Wednesday is going to be very interesting
Kirra is looking fun on the cams.
Not 10/10 but good waves and doesn't look too busy.
If you’ve got a gun or a JetSki. Almost impossible to paddle into….greenmount through coolie on the other hand
No excuse to not have a gun if you’re keen to surf good waves ;-)
Wide bay buoy throwing out some loco numbers this evening.
Sooo.....what's the big wave setups like nth of Agnes???
Southern GBR (Bunker Group) is the only "big wave setups".
All the beaches only get to around 3'-4' mark at best.
Ahh wow ok. Thanks @fitzroy.
Bit of a shame really with all that swell!
I know two spots that would be 8-10 and indo quality perfect the last two days and tomorrow out there.
Rio?
Karma got me this morning. Surfed Mooloolaba at high tide in front of surf club. Cracked up at up at a local ripper grommie who went over the falls and snapped his board. 2 mins later I pulled into a close out and somehow got sucked over and detonated through my board snapping it. Spent the next 15mins fighting the sweep to Alex copping +5ft relentless bombs on the head trying to swim in.
Noosa this arvo was a day remember. The sweep kept the crowd spread and leg burners were had from boiling pot through nationals into little cove. I’m buggered.
got the day off tomorrow... gonna be surfing noosa for 6 hours+ so keen. Got my arms ready for the paddle been stretching eating all my protein haha
Those arms will need to be ready. That sweep was off the charts today. Thought I’d try and stay at the pot when I jumped out……no chance.
Many crew drifting around from tea tree to get in the spot for the top of the pot?
few doing that in the morning ,
you missed the set and you were down the point in no time
How'd you go today?
That’s hilarious. Such a Gold Coast interview. Ha ha ha
Kirra now:
Hows the ski dorks doing step offs down the end. Massive kooks.
I remember preparing for a cyclone to cross the SE Qld coast in the mid 1990s. Found this link on BOM for TC Violet in March 1995: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/violet.shtml
Similar to Alfred FR? Even the dates are close!
Won't get any smaller from here on.
Might actually have Kirra back as a point at the end of all of this. Gonna move some sand.