South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 17th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid combo of E'ly groundswell (peaking early) and S/SE groundswell (peaking late) on Tuesday, with light winds and sea breezes
• Easing swells Wed with similarly favourable conditions
• Smaller again on Thurs with early light winds, tending SE in the north later and freshening
• Slowly rebuilding trade swells in SE Qld (smaller in Northern NSW) Fri with fresh SE winds
• Fun weekend for the points with fun trade swells and SE winds
• Plenty of tropical potential for the long term

Recap

Strong E’ly swells provided pockets of great waves over the weekend and into this morning, as a variety of wind conditions encompassed the coast. Both days delivered 3-5ft sets at exposed beaches and generally N’ly quadrant winds on Saturday swung to the south on Sunday, holding this direction into this morning (following gusty overnight SE winds in parts). A mid range south swell also provided plenty of energy into the mix during Sunday and today. This afternoon a new longer period E’ly swell has reached the coast and the regional points are starting to light up with solid, clean options under the southerly flow, with sets pushing the 6ft mark at exposed spots.

Greenmount lighting up this afternoon. Note the overlapping swell trains on the second wave of the set

Standing up tall and strong between Kirra and Greeny this afternoon

This week (Feb 18 - 21)

Our currently long period E’ly swell will peak overnight and gradually ease from Tuesday, though early morning should still retain some of the size seen this afternoon.

At the same time, a new long period S/SE groundswell will also push up the Northern NSW coast, generated by an impressive Tasman Low that developed midway between New Zealand and Australia yesterday. This swell has yet to reach Southern NSW but should do so in the next few hours. As such we should see an arrival into the Mid North Coast overnight, and it should be pushing close to the North NSW region by lunchtime.

As a side note, I am going to marginally pull back my expectations from the Tasman Low.  

To clarify further, I’m not revising my size estimates as such, it’s just that the fetch around the low - which should be pushing 50kts as we speak - is aimed away from the NSW coast (see below) so we’re looking at sideband energy glancing the coast, which will benefit a smaller number of south-facing locations than what we see from direct swell sources.  

Fortunately, this is not a solitary swell event where we’re reliant on one brief energy source for our weekly fix. Both swells have the capacity for 5-6ft sets at exposed spots, though the east swell will have the most potential early morning (take note, SE Qld surfers) whilst the S/SE groundswell will peak late across the Northern NSW coast. Bear in mind that interaction of these swell trains could produce bigger waves at some swell magnets, mainly those in Northern NSW.

Of course, sheltered points will see smaller surf from both sources but with light winds and weak sea breezes expected in most regions, it’s looking like an excellent day of punchy surf where most coasts should have something totally worth your while. And just to reiterate, expect a decrease in size throughout the day in SE Qld.

Both swell sources will ease slowly through Wednesday with similarly light winds. In all honesty it just looks like a smaller version of whatever is dished up on Tuesday. So, well worth pencilling in.

Similar conditions are expected early Thursday with a further steady easing of size from both sources, so we’ll be back to beachbreaks by this time. 

A developing ridge through the Coral Sea will then freshen SE winds across SE Qld and Northern NSW from late Thursday into Friday, as short range, local trade swells start to rebuild across the region - nothing special but maybe some 3ft sets across the Sunshine Coast, grading smaller as you head south from the Gold Coast.

All in all, make the most of Tuesday and Wednesday as it’s shaping to be the best run of surf we’ve seen this season, pretty much everywhere.

This weekend (Feb 22 - 23)

A firm ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea this weekend will maintain plenty of trade swell across the region, anwyehere from 3-4ft across exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, down to 2ft+ across the Mid North Coast.

Fresh SE winds will confine the best waves to the semi-exposed points, though they’ll be a little smaller in size.

There may also be some small mid-range E’ly swell in the mix too, from a tropical depression currently sitting well to the north-east of New Zealand. This system is slowly sliding into the NZ swell shadow and is too far away to make any meaningful impact on swell prospects, but it should help to add a little more energy into the mix. 

Either way, it’s looking like an ordinarily bog-standard fun summer swell/wind combo for the coast, which has been strangely absent this season. 

Next week (Feb 24 onwards)

An active monsoon trough is expected to slowly redevelop throughout the next week or two, stretching from the Northern Coral Sea down into the South Pacific.

It’s quite likely that we’ll see one or two tropical cyclones develop within this pattern but on their own they’re not of much use to us - especially if they’re embedded in the NW flow (which usually enhances their NE flank, i.e. aimed away from our region).

Right now it’s too early to have confidence on specifics, but the broadscale pattern does look supportive of a developing trade flow across the Northern Tasman Sea, and there’s a fair chance we may see this become supercharged by one of the tropical systems - so there’ll be plenty to keep an eye on over the week as the models draw closer to this time frame. 

See you Wednesday!