South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E’ly swell Tues/Wed week but onshore E’ly winds likely
• Extended hangover from Alfred likely in terms of degraded sand bars and onshore winds
• Potential for cleaner surf Thurs/Fri AM with small swells
• Small swells and light winds into and over the weekend, tending NE through Sun PM
• S’ly change likely later Mon with new S swell Tues, easing Wed
• Small E’ly swells into next week
• Potential S groundswell late next week
• Potential for low in Tasman next weekend with SE swell- early days check back Wed

Recap

Wild old weekend as TC Alfred meandered off Bribie Is all day Sat before finally making landfall on the mainland Sat night and tracking inland through the northern Brisbane Valley/South Burnett region. Not much surf south of Alfred with gale force E’lies making a mess of everything apart from a few novelty waves. North of Alfred we saw clean 2-3ft surf across the Sunshine Coast Sat, tending to messy NE swells Sun as Alfred dragged gales ashore and to the north. Further south surf was messy 4-6ft on an easing trend. Today we’ve seen messy wind affected surf for most of the region with 3-5ft of size. Areas around the Coffs-MNC are seeing a lighter onshore flow and more surfable options.

Messy junk most spots, cleaner from Coffs southwards

The Northern Rivers is suffering from flood run-off as well as onshore winds and not looking very inviting. It’ll take some time to clear up.

This week (Mar 10-14)

We’ve got a large high in the Tasman, feeding moisture into the remnants of ex TC Alfred, which is blending into the monsoon trough over Northern Australia. The whole synoptic pattern on the East Coast in the wake of Alfred is a moist onshore flow which looks to persist through into the mid week. A weak front races across the lower Tasman before reinforcing high pressure slips into the Tasman to reset the flow, albeit at a weaker level. Not a great deal of swell generated by any feature this week.

In the short run we’ll see high pressure slide under Tasmania through tomorrow but the old high will be the one holding a weakening ridge down the East Coast. That will see onshore winds moderate a notch and tend more E-E/NE. No great quality expected then, and nothing much surf-wise. Short period E/NE-NE swell will hold some 3-4ft surf across open beaches and expect it to be pretty junky. We may see some small S swell fill in across the MNC to North Coast from todays weak front but keep expectations pegged pretty low. 2-3ft at best across S swell magnets in NENSW which are likely to be wind affected. 

Pressure gradients back  off on Wed (and into Thurs) as the new high sits well to the south on a weakening trend and sets a new ridge. That should see cleaner mornings with light land breezes possible across NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast, less likely on the Sunshine Coast. Winds should tend more E’ly Wed, then E/SE on Thurs- potentially offering a few small peelers on the Points, sandbanks permitting.

Only small swells to work with. Wed should hover in that 2-3ft range with Thurs seeing a tad more as a long range trade swell from a fetch NE of the North island makes landfall. Windspeeds don’t get up much in the fetch so keep expectations low- we’re looking at inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft surf later Wed into Thurs. 

Nothing much to round off the working week. A small blend of E and E/SE swells offers up a few 2ft waves under light winds - possibly the first good day to really scope sandbanks after the hammering from Alfred. 

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

 Small weak swells continue into and over the weekend in the absence of any major swell generating systems. A massive low pressure gyre well to the south of the continent is poorly positioned with fetches aimed across the Tasman. High pressure drifts more NE into the Tasman with a weak trade flow sitting in the Central Coral Sea.  

We should see light offshore winds Sat morning tending to light N-NE seabreezes and minor E’ly and SE swells to 2ft.

Through Sun we’ll see those N-NE winds freshen as a front and trough approach from the west- tied to the massive low centre below the continent- with some increasing NE windswell expected in the a’noon across the MNC. Nothing major, but we should see surf build from 1-2ft to 2-3ft by close of play. 

The trade flow looks to produce a small E’ly swell across the weekend in the 2ft range- we’ll update through the week if it perks up.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

Action from the south is on the radar for next week, mixed in with small trade swells- although there is some model divergence with EC suggesting a stronger and more robust trade flow. First cab off the rank is a frontal system and trough which looks to push across Tas later Sun into the Tasman o/night into Mon potentially reach the MNC to North Coast later Mon into the evening. 

We may see some NE windswell Mon morning before the change - we’ll update through the week.

Models are still divergent over the strength of the front with the more bullish GFS outlook suggesting surf building into the 4ft range into Tues and easing through Wed. Expect revisions on that though the week.

Further ahead and long period S groundswell from another of the deep, storm force lows passing under the continent (see below) looks to make a glancing blow  Fri. 

We’ll pencil in S facing beaches to reach 3-4ft through Fri.

A trough of low pressure may also form in the Tasman late next week or into the weekend with potential for S-SE swell next weekend. 

Too far off to have any confidence in specifics so check back Wed and we’ll continue to dial it in as we get closer to the event.
Seeya Wed.