North of the storm is the place to be as Alfred meanders into Moreton Bay
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 7th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Coastal crossing expected across Moreton Bay Sat AM- wobble on approach still possible so stay updated in comments
- Cleaner surf on the Sunshine Coast with offshore winds Fri/Sat
- Sat likely a write off for most of the region as TC Alfred crosses the coast- strong onshore winds and storm surf
- Onshore winds and easing surf over the weekend
- Small E’ly swell next week but onshore E’ly winds likely
- Extended hangover from Alfred likely in terms of degraded sand bars and onshore winds
(Brief notes today due to intermittent power and unstable communications caused by TC Alfred- normal transmission resumes Mon)
Recap
Basically unrideable storm surf in the 10-12 with 15ft sets range across regions south of Alfred apart from very sheltered spots like inside Byron Bay and a few deep inside Coolangatta Bay (Spot X and occ. rideable waves at Kirra). The Sunshine Coast is well positioned with an offshore outflow from TC Alfred as it crawls towards the SEQLD coast. Pumping surf there yesterday in the 6-8ft range has eased back today as the cyclone gets closer to the coast and the Moreton Bay Islands block some of the swell. TC Alfred is moving slowly and erratic movement is possible on the approach with latest modelling suggesting a crossing early Sat morning across the Moreton Bay Islands.
Storm surf in Byron Bay
This weekend (Mar 8-9)
No material change to weekend f/cast. TC Alfred is maintaining intensity as a low end Cat 2 cyclone, as it moves slowly towards SEQLD at a walking pace. Gales to storm force winds are located across the SE and SW quadrants.
We need to split the forecast area between those areas north of the crossing point (Sunshine Coast) and those areas south of it (everywhere south of it including Gold Coast, Northern River and MNC).
The Sunshine Coast should see offshore winds through Sat- W through NW and really fun surf to 3-5ft.
All other areas will be howling onshore E’ly to E/NE’ly Sat, tending NE on Sun.
Stormy surf to 8-10ft+ is expected to continue south of the cyclone Sat, easing Sun and tending to stormy NE swell.
Depending on the movement of ex TC Alfred Sun winds are likely to tend NE and freshen on the Sunshine Coast with an increase in short range NE swell from winds feeding into the inland system. This could see some novelty spots in Moreton Bay fire up.
Next week (Mar 10 onwards)
Depending on the movement of Ex TC Alfred we’re highly likely at this stage to see an increased NE-E/NE flow along the NSW Coast early next week as the remnants of the system drift down the Northern Tablelands.
If this occurs as modelled we’ll see a mod NE flow through Mon and mod NE windswells.
Long story short, it looks like an extended hangover ahead from TC Alfred as it drags an onshore flow ashore and the region is subjected to days of onshore E/NE-E’ly flow with surf hovering in the 3ft range.
A long E’ly trade belt looks established later next week with better quality E’ly trade-swells likely, although highly dependent on local sandbanks for quality. Might be a few days required to scope out new sandbars in the wake of the extended coastal pounding we’ve seen from Alfred.
Frontal activity looks strong but zonal late next week, better aimed at Pacific targets but there is chance we may see a trough develop late next weekend with a S’ly flow and potential for localised S swell.
We’ll see how all that looks on Mon in more detail.
Seeya then and have a great weekend!
Comments
I wouldn't risk being stuck on Bribie just for a surf!
West Bribie secret spots will be firing.
cornetts !!!
All over it if it turns on. Hoping tc Alfred keeps south of Bribie. Riding it out on the island.
https://fb.watch/ya2oAHMZV9/
Cool photo:
Cyclone songs to cheer up the housebound:
Some interesting footage...North Bribie?
https://www.facebook.com/100069418397063/videos/pcb.960540742936530/1235...
Shit! There’s nothing left north of the latest breakthrough by the looks.
That's the south side of the new channel, there's still trees etc. again before Happy's. But yeah it's certainly made it even bigger. Feels like yesterday we'd come over the dune, through the trees and dump our stuff under that tower in the shade. Was always the best waves right there, gooone.
https://www.facebook.com/blueyspix/videos/3924570977872257/
Yeah between the new channel and the spot south that was being overtopped some days back. The opening will be huge now.
Honestly i've seen way worse erosion, way stronger winds, way more rain and i'm apparently in the thick of the action.
The way people are carrying on in facebook groups and social media would make you believe we're in a once in a lifetime storm.
Seen more wind and rain in a Winter southerly change.
Tweed got smashed last night, insane amount of trees down, power out nearly everywhere. M1 closed between Chinderah and Byron, low areas starting to flood, with round 2 coming tonight and tomorrow. Hopefully Goldy doesn't get similar.
You're tripping mate. So many people on the Southern Goldie with no power, trees down everywhere.
Trees everywhere in southern Goldy? 1 in cooly, 1 across the Goldy highway at Currumbin. That’s not everywhere
I've spent a fair chunk of yesterday afternoon, last night and this morning - until we were called off due to hazardous working conditions - removing trees across roads, houses etc. Every second street has a big tree (or two, or three) that's been completely uprooted, or in some cases, snapped off at the base. It's pretty real down here.
On the Goldy Ben?
Tweed.
Stay safe Ben. Sounds hectic.
You need to come south of Tally Creek sometime champ. It’s hectic on the Tweed RN
If a tree falls on the Goldy and @Burleigh didn't see it on Tik Tok.....did it really happen??
Truth social
In the words of the Carpenters, we've only just begun.
Must be a conspiracy eh Burleigh?? ;-)
Woke mind virus to control the sheeple.
Hahaha!
The MAGA supporters always stand out eh?
If only ol' Burls had some restraint, if only he had (warranted) cynicism for the media and politicians without going full retard.
Yep. Although i do wish it was true.
Cos unfortunately Alfies heading in hot right as we speak.
Take care there Burleigh, Andy M and all in the affected area.
This system is no joke.
:)
?si=nqvBls3XFkwlfBhChttps://m.
How's the rain and wind now Burls?
Bit windier than earlier, was way worse on Christmas Day 2023.
I’m sure there will be some damage around.
Nothing like the media beat up they wanted us to believe.
"They"??
Who's they Burleigh?
Serious question,..do you know how to read a weather map?
@burleigh, get your head out of the sand fella, really, been up here all my life (just north of Byron)... can't say I've seen anything like this for maybe 20 years +
Not sure where you are, but mate really.
We had wind gusts up to 115kms... no power for 3 days, floods and the beaches are all time battered, nothing like I've seen before, tell me the last time a winter southerly change has delivered this for a PROLONGED period?
Sunny Coast looks good on the CAMs right now where is everybody?
Surfed out I’d say. Been a mega couple of days
Seems like they are all out at North Coolum? So strange to see a spot so crowded when its pumping everywhere
Wow!
Really fun session this morning, 3 1/2 hours in water. Just got back from second shift and the swell has died. Totally different than early.
Jack dekort insta stories.
Sad day to be on the south side of the system :crying:
Checked a South end beachy on the way home, slow 2-3ft sets, lapping at the shore between them, almost blown flat like a slow midwinter day, unreal.
Dead whale which was buried at Pottsville has resurfaced !
Yep, image added here.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2024/10/30/whale-carcass...
Kinda looks like that was filmed at Portstea SLSC in Winter.
That Bombie on the way out to Julian Rocks in the pics is looking like bloody Mavericks!
Anyone know if it's been surfed when clean?
coupla punters out on the pass cam ,
Excuse my ignorance but can someone explain how Noosa ( nth of cyclone) had consistent east swell for the next week? Wouldn’t the swell be pushing out to sea up there?
NE infeed on the back of the system, then leaning into an easterly tradeflow through next week.
3ft Sunny Coast but smaller inside Noosa points.
Did someone write this up to get bites out of Burleigh and the like?
Yeah I saw that and chuckled. I don’t think it’s intentional, I reckon it’s just leftover template copy from storm messaging during COVID and they have forgotten to remove it or cant be bothered having a conversation about why
Anything will trigger the cookers
And a condom.
What the sea wants the sea will have - full album playlist
&list=PLMynaxX_I0z_I_4IrfbsI41LSVeJ98Or_Enjoyed that album!
Alfred's sloowly heading to Morton Island
https://zoom.earth/maps/pressure/#view=-27.23223,153.444068,10z/date=202...
Yew Kooringal represent!
Pumping lefts up the inside of Crab Island when swell squeezes through South Passage Bar.
Check out the perfect taper on the island especially after its western-most point.
Bathymetry like Skeleton Bay.
Will hold the biggest of swells.
By the way, I reckon Maxwell Smart would be quite stoked to hear about Alfred's "Cone of Uncertainty".
Wouldn't like to have a house on the hill at Dbah for this system.
Or any SE facing real estate.
Any word from the front yet comrades?
Flood warning for Currumbin.
Lismore situation -
“The Wilsons River at Lismore is currently at 8.04 metres and rising, above the moderate flood level (7.20 metres). The Wilsons River at Lismore is likely to exceed the major flood level (9.70 m) early Saturday morning. With forecast rainfall, the river level may reach 10.6 metres late Saturday morning, with major flooding.”
Levee height is 10.6m.
Strongest winds on the Tweed overnight were between 10pm and 1am, hard to gauge but I suspect 50kts+.
Interesting, the wind strength trend at the Byron AWS doesn't match my observations (seemed to be closer to Cooly trend), which has otherwise been relatively linear for some time now.
Anyway, based on the damage I saw yesterday (on the ground), today is gonna be much worse. Big trees likely to come down at any time - so the safest place you can be is (in most cases) at home, inside.
Same here in Kingy. Felt like something might give around midnight,
Wind swung on Moreton
Hard to imagine that the centre of the cyclone (well, now tropical low) is about 15km south of our Caloundra Bar cam, pointing in this direction.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/caloundra-bar
The biggest falls have been on the Coffs coast, again:
Bellingen 269mm in 22 hrs.
Dorrigo 258mm
Largest on the Northern Rivers appears to be Uki with 179mm. Many stations behind Lismore with 100-150mm recorded.
Looks like the system is still just offshore meandering along Bribie Is, crossing the Island just south of Caloundra in the next few hrs.
E'ly gales here between 2-5- not too much damage that I can see, at least along the exposed Ridgeline here.
One of my chook pens blown over, luckily with no birds inside- I moved them into more secure quarters.
Anecdotally, winds a notch below Ex-Oswald in 2013, and the hybrid trough-ECL of May 2009.
I have photos from that ECL in 2009 and the erosion here at palm beach was way worse then than what it is currently,there is still some sand against the seawall now, where in my photos the stairs at 9th av were hanging 6ft down the rocks.
Probably due to a directional difference. Seems the more exposed south facing beaches are copping it the worst this time.
Also maybe the reef has had an influence this time?
I'd say the huge amount of sand that has built up over the years plus when they did the rainbowing with the dredge back in 2012,the artificial reef looked completely overrun by the swell.
Yeah, that was prior to the significant resources Gold Coast council have invested into sand pumping since then, most specifically in that location dredging Currumbin Creek annually.
Just got out of the water in Maroochy. Lots of really big fish jumping out of the water in waist deep water. Thought I saw something dark behind them. Can't say conclusively as the waters that dirty (can hardly see your board sitting on it.) stay safe
Could be anything Nick- even a massive jewfish feeding frenzy.
More likely schools of mullet and bull sharks and bronzies would be definitely comfortable in that shallow water chasing them.
Did a bit of a google of fish. Reckon they were mullet. About 500mm long jumping
Light misty rain with a gentle W’ly breeze up here on the Sunshine Coast at 250 m ASL and 19 km as the crow flies to the ocean.. as someone who often spends their time defending the BOM, the absolutely massive margins they’ve allowed in their forecasting ranges for wind and rain up here will no doubt be a source of endless derision from Joe Public.
Indeed. Who'd want to be a forecaster, eh?
Seriously though, with tropical cyclones having a fair degree of unpredictability - and because they often display extreme ranges in rainfall, wind speed etc across small regions - it's an almost impossible task to communicate the correct message to such a large, widespread (geographically) community.
I think the BOM have done a great job. It's the first significant cyclone event to affect a highly populated region (including a capital city) in a very long time and the messaging has been clear from the outset (they also had the good fortune of an extended Coral Sea track, at slow speed, which gave a lot more time).
Agree with high populated region, but Marcus hit Darwin in 2018 Cat 2 with considerable infrastructure damage and power outages for days and weeks in some areas.
Fair point.
But, the greater Darwin only has a population of 140,000, and is regularly at risk of tropical cyclones every year - so everyone is much better prepared.
SE Qld has a population of over 4 million, and tropical cyclones are a very low probability.
its been a rare occasion that goverment or a gov agancy has been pro active. not re active after the fact.
Agreed mate. That last minute weakening to Cat 1 before it made landfall and it's late dive to the North was a blessing for all. Could have just as easily strengthened and gone to the south. That would have been a nightmare scenario.
Hopefully the rain doesn't eventuate as badly either.
It's crazy. And infuriating. The BOM is damned if they do and damned if they don't.
They've done a great job cos they've clearly stated the uncertainty throughout. They've always used "may" and "could", not "will" when talking about the forecasts of the cyclone track, and the rain and wind.
They've had the warning region from DI to Grafton but the one unequivocal thing they've repeated is that the wind would be lighter on its northern flank, and the rain on the north will come later.
It drives you nuts when people choose to ignore the realities of forecasting, particular those required for planning for disasters, and interpret the BOM's approach as an over reaction or their forecasts as wrong.
24hr totals for Belongil 20mm and Cape Byron 24mm.
Goonegerry - 10kms away and the same forecasting region - 115mm.
How does an organisation convey that difference? It's enormously hard and I don't think MSM or the many FB sites do a very good job.
I reckon those Byron totals must be off with all the flash flooding footage in town.
I'm seeing similar where I am.
76mm in my rain gauge for the last 24hrs.
Yet 25 minutes drive south of me 156mm.
@ burls, looks like THEY lied to you again, no wonder you don't trust the guvermut. It was all a big conspiracy by big retail to sell more toilet paper.
I heard there was heaps of cloud seeding and Chemtrail action over the coral sea in mid-late Feb.
HAARP!!!!!
OMFG -
The Shooting lines from the Sonars is the Reason Alferd is Slow moving
they are Blocking it until they cant block no more...most people watching the Radar have not noticed that.
surfflowsteph
Rainfall totals south of the boarder are quite low last 24 hours. 63 Coffs, 24 Byron, only 30-40 here at Bilambil. Must have all gone north
Dorrigo 262mm. So it's up near 600mm over three days.
Crazy differential. We’ve had 200 for the whole week
Always the case for the Coffs coast for dorrigo to get the rainfall. Sits 700m elevation above Coffs and cops the orographic rainfall - there’s a reason there’s a rainforest there.
Some big red blobs on the BoM map in the escarpment behind mur'bah since 9am.
Lots of water to come down the tweed in the next 24hrs. But hopefully that's the worst of it.
Brisbane catchment might be in for it.
Stalled again- and rain heading north to Sunshine Coast- according to Tom Saunders
Still light offshore at Curras.
https://holfuy.com/en/weather/1583
Glad to hear Head Office survived the night, looked like Alfred was coming for you for a while there Ben.
Kingscliff seemed to have the highest wind speeds during the event.
No Apocalyptic play list is complete without this
IMO BOM and emergency services have done a great job and really had no choice but to prepare for worst case scenarios.
After the historic 2022 floods which were almost completely missed and preparation was so woeful- they had to get people prepared.
Still E'ly gales here- saw a frigate bird hovering next to land. Very infrequent visitor here and only seen in storms.
Frigatebirds are so impressive, massive wingspan and soaring effortlessly.
Dept of Education may have got carried away this time though, schools have been closed as far south as Taree since Thursday and are closed Monday as well. Hardly rained south of Coffs on the coast, although the hinterland has been hammered.
Looks like it is still off the Bribie coast from BNE radar images and Sunshine Coast wind obs.
It's doing exactly what i predicted. Went between Nth Straddie and Moreton, and then headed straight N up Moreton Bay, still sitting on the water.
Any chance it could re intensify and head back out to sea? Was thinking of those models you posted the other day FR where this was a consistent past predictor.
Scratch that. Looks like it's already made landfall near Maroochy.
Also the barometric pressure's risen significantly.
Vortex still between moreton and bribie on the radar
yeah cheers just saw that as posted below @dp.
Gotta be noted, the BOM have been a bit mixed with their messaging throughout, including not picking up on it's current track (unless i've missed an announcement somewhere). Also last night they kept putting out announcements that it was still a few hours away from landfall, while at the time it was crossing the coast.
lotta rain on the back side of it by the looks .
I’m not seeing any track of it making landfall. The latest BOM track has it doing a little loop just inside Cape Moreton
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Yep! True that.
Has Alfie got a second wind? Is he just going to do laps of Moreton Island and the Goldy until winter?
He's a mysterious little fellow this Alfie. Its actually just tracked back out slightly into open ocean (as you pointed out) which could be a concern.
ACCESS the most accurate with the radar and current conditions. I guess that's because its a local model.
Getting smashed on the tweed right now
600mm of rain in Brissy Northern suburbs on ACCESS over next 24hrs.
Think these models really lose much use when a system like this comes close to land.
Look at the rain radar. Its band of moderate rain tending to showers about its flanks. Alfie is done.
Alfie was a big unit, hard to stop so close to the line.
There's a kite surfer out the Ally atm. I guess this is perfection for them.
Really interesting system
Assuming there is little steering and it seems to be sitting in the nook between Moreton and Bribie
If it tracks west north Brisbane flood risk escalates
Agree on the interest. Been stuck indoors and trying to learn a bit.
The 70hPa winds have changed from easterly to southerly over the system in the last 24hrs.. I feel like that's important!
But the top of the vortex was in the 250hPa chart yesterday and now it's dropped. And the 250hpa winds are blowing SSW over the system... I guess that is important too for the current stall.
Maybe best for me to just go back to looking out the window.
Wind shear has increased in BOM tech report which will pull it apart
It is stubborn though
The wrap is not making it over Moreton so limited rainfall so far north Brisbane
Alfie just wants to chill for a bit off Bribie.
E'ly gales still blowing here but we've just had a few light scud showers all day.
Lots of rain on the radar but it’s like there’s an umbrella over Cooly and Tweed Heads… just never seems to get here although the winds have gone turbo again in the last hour or so
Another day of tree carnage across the Tweed.
And with the soil completely saturated, any day with any kind of wind could see more trees topple over.
Hopefully your council doesn't relax the rules around tree lopping after all this is over. We had a storm 10 years ago on the CC where trees were down all over the place, every 2nd street had one. I had 5 down on my 750m block. The council reacted by relaxing the rules, then all the tree haters lived out their dreams. It became a familiar sound for years, the chainsaws. Pretty sad seeing a tree you've always loved driving past being removed
been a weird 2 days here, south end Bribie
windy, bugger all rain,
missed 2 days of pretty good surf up s/c , as i didn't want to get caught out and not be able to get back home when the rain finally unloaded,
rain still hasn't shown up!!
Heavy dumps of rain incoming, followed by 2 weeks of straight Easterly airflow...probably bringing in more moisture as it goes. Gonna be wet for a while by the looks of things. Not ideal.
im hoping it just fizzles out rain wise, my street is one that feeds into the passage so gets inundated on high tide when we get a decent dump
I don’t think it will fizzle, a system that sustained doesn’t disappear. Edging south it seems with local obs matching the radar
Increasing wind and rain and an interesting 24 hours ahead.
Any chance Alf could spin up again? It looks like on the 512 K Brisbane radar it's trying to get going again ...
Easily cat 1 strength at inner beacon. Average 40 knots gusting 45 knots
I've thought it could/would all along. Those 3 or 4 days of offshores off the sunny coast on the north side of the eye surely must have warmed the sea surface temps up a bit. I'd be starting to think of Gympie/Noosa stretch as being in the firing line if that's the case.
What an epic few days, I can barely move, part of me hopes it goes onshore tomorrow.
Did the banks hold it up your way? Saw some footage of Mudjimba looked fun. Fun where I was this afternoon on high tide
Bit storm bar-ish but yeah there were some good spots. Had better sessions down the other end though.
Still spinning in the bay at a of 1600 today! Go home Alfred, stubborn one this one
Looks like it's definitely drifting southwards.
Redcliffe increasing SE gales,
Nor-west beacon (off Bribie) S/SE 10 kt
Inner Beacon E/SE gales
Still offshore outflow on the Sunny Coast.
Ahhh ok. Didn't see this post.
You've nailed every aspect of this storm system FR.
That's why they pay you the big bucks!
can confirm the se gales around midday , l/o south end bribie
Not over by a long shot. Stronger winds now than last night at mine (5km sth of Brisbane cbd). Wind obs increasing in the southern bay. 26.5 ssts in Moreton bay where it’s sitting. Another chapter or two to this story.
For sure AP
A lot to happen yet
All relative - might not be an official TC but it is still a system with a punch. If it stalls over the next 48 hours like it has for the last two weeks it will cause much angst for people who were impacted in ‘22. As someone who saw that firsthand it is hard to take the many internet pyros wanting more from the storm or lambasting the BOM
rains kicked in ,
not super intense but consistent heavy shower type , wind is enhancing that
Been checking the radar intermittently throughout the day. It's barely moved all day. All the heavy rain on the E/SE flank hasn't pushed onto land yet. We're used to seeing cyclones cross and drag that rain on behind in a much quicker time frame. When that happens the real problems of flash and riverine flooding will happen. But who knows, Alfred's living up to his name and being a dawdling old senior wandering around the shops.
Must be pounding out at Point Lookout. Radar has been impressive.
Yer lads currently sitting in a boat on the north side of wave break... Been watching that radar like a hawk all day. Old Alf is stubborn bugger come on mate just go on the land buddy .. it's been a wild ride out here but the crew here got our shit together early and we are all still sitting good... The main channel has been a shit show lot of boats broke anchor carnage Everywhere
A bit more N in the wind on the SC just now.
Today's totals starting to mount again in the scenic rim. Looking ominous for the Tweed if exAlfie stays at the Moreton hotel for a couple more ponies.
Very slow moving and the forecast totals from ex-TC Alfred for the Brisbane region are quite significant. It seems like this is just the beginning for them.
Yep huge amounts building.
Reminds me of the huge rain around 95, sitting on the balcony of the Regatta and watching all sorts of debris pouring down the river. Rained solid for about a week. Almost enough to be a Paul Kelly song.
Interesting watching the radar with the rain bands around the ex TC. In contrast, the radar hasn’t shown the heavy rain on the ranges behind Coffs down to Port Macquarie all day. Bellinger River is currently at major flood level but there is just a few heavy showers showing on the radar.
How's the hot spot sitting off the border.
Disturbing!
A Few Surfers about to Head out at the Pass.
After heavy erosion on the beaches north of Brunswick heads sand is already starting to build back up again.
Considerably more sand than this time yesterday.
High tide must be dumping suspended sand against the cut/wall/drop off.
Buried rock wall groyne going back into the dunes north end of NB completely exposed yesterday already has substantially more sand cover than 20 odd hours ago.
Fascinating to watch.
50knots sustained north BNE last night, but won’t fall under cyclone definition due to distribution i understand - Rain bands continue to line up from the NNE, flooding issues might arise next 12-24hours or so over a large region if it doesn’t let up.
Interestingly mainstream media have moved on from their coverage…
FWIW landed this morning at BNE from AKL. Before we left the captain said they had take on extra fuel to give a few goes at landing and a possibility of having to return back to NZ ! Also that the conditions were "impinging on our operational capabilities". We were suitably impressed at their attitude !!
The landing wasnt too turbulent but there was zero visibility all the way to touchdown the cloud was so thick. Everyone onboard cheered at the landing.
BNE was a leaky bucket; place needs some investment.
Drive back up north was wet but not heavy. Empty roads.
Very humid and moist up here; Hervey Bay further north is getting smashed. Not even in the warning zone.
Phwoar, would have been a few nervous moments on the landing!
A wet week of rainfall on the ridges; totals: Springbrook 914mm - Dorrigo 669mm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-09/sunday-ex-cyclone-alfred-live-blo...
Getting pretty wet Down here at mooball / crabbes creek .. rain is constant seems to be getting worse. A full night of this rain will be interesting
Don’t let the media fool you. Alfred wasn’t that bad of a guest.
Good to see you survived and came out from under your blanket Burleigh!!
Not sure what that means exactly though.
What did the media say that was different to what BOM and the state and federal emergency services were saying?
Care to elaborate? Otherwise it's a pretty shallow statement.
A little lesson on cyclones for Burleigh and the naysayers.
A cyclone is an incredibly powerful, intense storm system.
But also only small in area. That's why the weather forecasters put so much attention into 'the path of the cyclone'. They're also very erratic, as Alfred showed. He was extraordinarily erratic.
Nobody can convincingly predict it's path a day out, let alone an hour out.
Alfred decided to make a charge for land, and by the good grace of Huey, that land was a small thin stretch of islands, mostly uninhabited, and those that lived on those islands, mostly lived on the lee side of the destructive winds that hit. Guaranteed if Nth Straddie and Moreton had skyscrapers and dwellings on the East facing coast they would have been very sore and sorry right now.
Burleigh Heads, and the Gold Coast was not in the direct path of the cyclone. In fact you were 100kms away. That's 50kms out of the path of destruction of the cyclone.
But still, he gave ya's a little clip on the way through. Also, it was always predicted to be a category 2. The advice was that it COULD have destructive wind gusts. The sort of storm that isn't safe to be in, and could have dire consequences if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time. Nobody ever said it was going to be a category 5 and flatten the Goldy. But somehow, that's how you've interpreted it, even though that was never, ever suggested.
It would have been severe negligence by every agency to not warn and prepare people for the potential landfall in a possible path the cyclone may have taken, hence, they had to cover all bases. It's still acting unpredictably.
Burlz, i think what it really boils down to, is you have a severe problem with comprehension.
That would explain your Trumpism and leaning towards conspiracy theories.
Well said southern, reasonable and informed
Cheers @roystein. Unfortunately some people have the logic gene missing from their DNA!
When you have old people calling abc saying they are sleeping in their bathrooms, then you have to look at the source of their fear. Similar to your fear. You’re no where near the Gold Coast yet you act like you know more than people that actually live here. you’re a fool
You are a muppet mate. Reality is that on the ground here there is flooding and that brings back trauma for people that have had to evacuate to their roofs in the dark and rain as their house went under in 2022z No fear mongering in that. I’m not into the mainstream hype on these events as I said earlier they have left this event behind but it isn’t all sunshine and roses for many at the moment.
Not talking about any possible flooding mate.
Bottom line is, the giant (not so giant) golf ball on the Gold Coast Highway got blown over. That's as big as storms get on the Goldy.
Ridiculous to dismiss this!!!
Burleigh heads was probably the most protected corner of the Gold Coast with the wind direction during the worst of it... Just saying.....
Ahh ok Burleigh. Keep being you. You're definitely one of a kind.
Bravo @SR. Thank you
Alfred, the uninvited guest who turns up 3 days late and then couch surfs for a week.
Don't worry burls, the law of averages says that eventually you will be right about something, but I'm not holding my breath.
Another peanut that doesn’t live here. Go crawl back into your kennel olddog. How’s your super going?
Funny thing is, even though i don't live there now... i can guarantee i know more people on the Gold Coast than you do @burleigh. Been in touch with them regularly throughout....power and reception permitting.
Gonna have to start calling you bubble boy from now on. Bubble boy by name, and bubble boy by surroundings. You can just kinda tell by the way that you post that you don't have many meaningful connections around you. It's a little bit sad and i do feel bad for you. Maybe go chat to a few crew that were terrified throughout Thurs/Fri/Sat. Make some new connections. It'll be good for you, guaranteed.
Need to get out of your bubble Burleigh Bubble Boy. #4220!!
Yep, power went out and phone reception was limited..... so what? Alfred was blown out of proportion by all media in the lead up. You were not here, so sit down boy. It's getting embarrassing.
Ahh beautifully articulated as always.
I think we all know who the outlier is here @burleigh.
Your trolling is never ending isn't it. Even during a fucken cyclone.
And you still haven't addressed the putt putt ball being blown over!!!???
WHY ARE THE MEDIA HIDING THE TRUTH ABOUT THE PUTT PUTT BALL?!!?!
Easy answer SR.........it wasn't correctly secured..simple.
Thanks to your hero Trump my hard earned super is down about 25k so far.
I can hear you laughing from here.
I think it's clear from here on in, Burleigh is a troll.
If ever there was any doubt....
Yep absolutely. I live in Burleigh myself and it’s a great place. Shame he feels the need to take our suburbs name as his moniker. Very undeserving of it. Also not representative of the people here. He’s just a clown and a cooker. I’m sure his wardrobe features many maga hats…
I thought crumbs of burleigh stirs the fish for more bites.
These floods do the same. Surfers could avoid dirty mouths.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-10/brings-highest-rainfall-in-decade...
Very wet night up here in the hills of the Sunshine Coast. Just went out to check the rain gauge and it was overtopping. Somewhere in the 250 mm range based on the totals around me I’d say. Nambour really seems to be copping it with 310 mm as of 03:30.
Pretty sure I now live on an island at Palmwoods. The bridge into town is totally flooded. Guessing the other ways in and out are also. Funnily enough were actually running out of toilet paper
Upper Springbrook has had 1,095mm since 9am Wednesday, each day seeing progressively higher totals (so the flow on effects have been gradual, building to the flooding peak we are now experiencing).
You guys shouldn't attack the conspiracy guy. If you like new media, this guy uses Elon to show how people fall into Trump/conspiracies.
?si=C0Uxl-FnRFoReJhXIf you like books, essential reading is https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/15916.The_True_Believer
Let's talk surf! Dead wind this morning after a week of gale onshores and the surf.... wasn't there. It was breaking super weird and not at all conducive to surfing. I hope that Alfie cunt didn't take our best season of surf!
How's it looking where you are?
Terrible.
The Richmond has the largest flood plain of any of the Northern Rivers and it's now in major flood.
Typically it's a full tide cycle (full moon to full moon) for recovery of water quality etc etc.
In practical terms, I think the rest of March, at least, is a write-off.
Hoping we don't get a major fish kill.
Nambour now up to 345mm in 22 hrs.
Nambour just cracked three fiddy while the airport at just 14 km away has only had 50 mm. Interesting how the ‘Bour often pulls out some big rainfall totals despite still basically being at sea level. Must be due to the air flow being impeded and then lifted as it encounters the Blackall Range just to the west.
Pushback against the mainstream media narrative?
No great surprise. We live in an age where many people don't like MSM narratives foisted onto them, which is fair enough. However, what might be a moment to reflect on the media at large instead becomes the rejection of one narrative for the acceptance of another.
I didn't watch much media during Alfred - two media websites, zero television channels - so can't really say how they covered it, though I'd imagine it was clickbait-friendly.
The thing that appals me is some media outlets now having a shot at the BOM, who I think did a good job under trying circumstances. Check this dross from the Daily Mail:
A quick trawl of their website - and subsequent loss of IQ points - shows they talked it up as much as anyone when it was good for their business model, then later pushed a narrative they knew would find traction with the perpetually suspicious.
It's a microcosm of the revisionism around the covid response.
Very early on I remember seeing an epidemiologist on the ABC say words to the effect of "if we get the response to this wrong, we'll be criticised for missing the obvious and stuffing it up. If we get it right, and there isn't widespread health impacts from it we'll be accused of over-reacting". The latter has of course happened, with revisionism online being off the charts.
We seem to have difficulty separating the causes of the outcomes from events like this, and forget that good outcomes occur because of preparation and actions, not just the apparent severity of the event. With covid, people seem to have forgotten that it wasn't just deaths from covid we were working to prevent, but also deaths from preventable things that would have occurred when hospitals have to run below capacity. We now look at the impact of later more benign covid variants and interpret the final outcome in Oz as only being an caused by the effect of those. This looks like a micro-version of the same process, forgetting that part of the reason it might not have impacted people so hard is because they were prepared for it.
I'd like to know what level of damage to their own backyard would lead people to see the media's coverage of the BOM forecasts as acceptable. I'd also love to know how effectively people can separate the media from the BOM.
Great example. Damned if you do, damned if you don't!
Well put, I think most reasonable people, trying to walk a line between hysteria and denial, would agree with you.
The worst case scenarios are profoundly f/up and all were on the table until Stu (I think?) came to the rescue and forecast Alfie's demise (or rapid downgrade at least) as he upwelled himself off the Tweed Coast and Kingscliffe got 60kms not 100 or more
I think it was Steve who said that Alfred was moving so slowly it was creating an upwelling.
Thats the comment, was Steve thx, crucial observation at the time, the forecast had been for a possible intensification as it approached? Turned out the other way
The spectrum of perceptions of coverage throughout this event is likely as diverse as the spectrum of experiences. In this case Burlz happens to be on both spectra and is entitled to his opinion. Only he knows what he anticipated vs what he experienced. Where his argument falls over is when he questions the impact on others whose opinions are just as valid as his. There are a range of metrics to measure the impact of this storm and compare it to similar, from the morbid (number of fatalities) to the practical (number of houses without power; number of people displaced; cost of recovery effort etc). It's all about perspective!
Yep @Andrew P. The rain is merely puddles compare to 5 weeks ago in FNQ (below), but the population density is chalk and cheese.
Top 24hr hours (9am Saturday to 9am Sunday): 2nd February 2025.
* Paluma Dam 717mm
* Rollingstone 702mm
* Pace Road, Rollingstone 646mm
* Paluma 501mm
* Wallaman Escarpment 463mm
* Upper Major Creek 452mm
* Bluewater 449mm
* Toolakea 437mm
* Paradise Lagoon 400mm
* Ingham Airport 389mm
A mate of mine had over 500mm in 3 hrs at Mission Beach.
Some of those areas had totals of over 2300mm for several days.
In saying that, parts of those areas rainfalls average over 4M per year.
Yep that last point is important too. Nate the weather guy on ABC mornings made that point last week. The east flowing catchments in FNQ are differently shaped from those in SEQ, because they've been getting that kind of rain for millennia so it takes more rainfall to flood up north than it does to flood down south. And the urban development has been built to more effectively accommodate monsoon and cyclone levels of rain.
A week ago I think it was reasonable to expect rainfall like that around northern NSW and SEQ.
It is also important to note that much of the Northern Rivers, GC, Greater Brisbane and SC are all built and heavily populated on flood plains. Why you would buy or own a property in those areas within the flood zones is beyond me. And that goes for anywhere in Australia. This type of flooding is not one in 100 year, or even one in 50 year event. It is quite regular. So all the hysteria and media hype baffles me. There is ample evidence, maps and historical data freely available to everyone.
Very true Fitzy but you can still get caught out.
Mate of mine sold up here and moved south. Bought a block back from Evans River- never flooded before, historical data showed that. Fully insured on that basis.
Woke up in 2022 flood - no warnings- with the downstairs of his house completely underwater.
Luckily insurance covered all damage and eventually, I think it took over 12 months he was able to get tradies in there to repair all damage.
"Why you would buy or own a property in those areas within the flood zones is beyond me."
Fitzy I think the historical and economic reasons are pretty straightforward.
Yeah not the best idea to live in parts of Brisbane, Ballina, Lismore etc but the incentives to do so are impossible to ignore.
It's not the BOM, it's the media. I had no power or phone reception for 3 days and got my updates from ABC radio. The people calling we're genuinely scared for their lives, crying, getting angry etc etc.
It was a fucking cat 1 cyclone, that's it. 99.9999% of people were never in danger of anything other than a tree falling down.
A complete over reaction from the media. We've got a moron from WA saying it must have been bad because a giant golf ball blew over on the Gold Coast highway...... Give me a break.
Not a comment at all directed to Burlz opinion but I am pretty sure the bloke whose roof was torn off suddenly and it was blowing across the street was pretty concerned for the lives of his family and in zone. Pretty sure the bloke on TV this morning with water up to his ceiling which was unexpected was pretty justifiably concerned.
The media can be blah. There was a lot of news coverage where it is clear the journo found the only puddle they could find to stand in, then again hard to deny the above eg's of the other extremes.
The BOM did what they had to do IMHO - damned if you do and damned if they didn't. What this event did show was the skill of the Swellnet crew and many in the community. Hope all you boys/girls are and stay safe.
As i said, my issue isn't with the BOM. It's the media. Roof falling off, home flooded, a few trees falling on houses. That's part of the very small percentage mentioned above.
The media had people scared shitless which was completely unnecessarily.
Just so we're all clear, i have no issue with the BOM.
Unfortunately for us on the west side of the M1 on the Gold coast this was a very real event. We had three nights of trees coming down - it was worse than Christmas/boxing day 2023, and way worse than a typical storm. But thankfully our community in Talle were out nearly every day clearing roads so we could get in and out. No mobile service/phones, no power and now no water. Gave up an evacuated yesterday. Haven't been able to get back to the house yet.
Sorry to hear mate. And sorry you have to see moronic comments.
Hope all is well back at the pad.
We have friends in Talley just up from Man on the Bike, tree came down on house. Road blocked, still without power. Carnage!!
They came & used our internet to lodge claim yesterday etc etc.
The house near The Pines with a tree through it. The unit block in Tugun with massive tree on it. Plenty around Elanora copped the rough end of the pineapple.
Yeah total over exaggeration!
This was serious weather event with approx 700,000 people without power at one point.
We are very fortunate it didn’t steam full ahead & cause multiple deaths & further destruction. Imagine if it did & no plans were in place or warnings given.
Lots of stories still to come.
Maybe this guy had something to do with the downgrading of Alfred ,
David Miles from Atmospherica claims his team were going to Intervene on Alfred with some kind of technological manipulation.
https://x.com/MilesResearch/status/1896578255634702803
David Miles is old news.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-24/wimmera-mans-company-sells-rain-t...
Yeah , I read a few of those articles to try find out more about him and his projects It will be interesting to see if any data is released from his trial , he states
Results from this undertaking will be
determined as
"success" or "fail" solely
based on data collected and published by
the Bureau of Meteorology at the end of the
week.
You really are a dumbarse arent you @ burleigh.
But what about the oversized golf ball....... LMAO
#thoughtsandprayers
FYI "our information landscape has been shattered...."
Society is being fragmented & stories become sensationalised clickbait for profit by a few corportations.
Last Tuesday and Wednesday around Ballina and Lismore if you weren't filling sandbags and making preparations you were either foolhardy or stupid or both - when Alfred was sitting out there offshore, anything was possible.
Now, after the fact, the ideologically and logically compromised become Monday's experts.
Yeah the media are generally contemptible but as Stu and Ben have pointed out above, in the post-Covid landscape people are wilfully throwing the BOM and others into this basket.
The BOM have been on a hiding to nothing for a long time and have been forced to err on the side of caution from daily coastal reports all the way up to major events like cyclones but of course imagine the howls of protest if they didn't. No win situation.
Maybe all things considered - politics, media, communications, libertarianism - we're quickly developing the society we deserve.
Talk about a loss of IQ points.
If only people could read a basic weather map. Then they wouldn't have to rely on BOM or media updates. Pretty simple stuff really. See that little red circle??........
News outlets reporting 12 metre waves on the beaches is indicative of the disconnect between science and the layperson.
Yes, the Wide Bay waverider buoy picked up a lone 12 metre signal but it was an open ocean swell, and likely created by the constructive interference between multiple swells, so it's in no way to be interpreted as a wave the height of a wave breaking on the beaches.
It's an innocent mistake, though compounded by media sensationalism, and similar 'mistakes' are made across the board so keep your grains of salt handy when consuming science you don't fully understand.
Just saw an older lady at the beach, talking about it all and she goes, ‘did you go surfing in that stuff, I heard it was 12m or was it 12 foot?’
……….i was thinking, ‘like it matters’….to the lay person they are just sensational numbers and mean absolutely nothing.
Yep, just saw a news clip that said the Gold Coast beaches were washed away by "waves as big as a 3-story building".
Gave me a chuckle.
Another chuckle ... Even Tom Tate said the scarfed out beachies had 8m vertical drops! ... pretty sure he meant feet and he is a qualified engineer
About all he's qualified for.
Wonder if the cyclone track over Moreton Bay may have dissipated some of its energy before landfall as opposed to going directly ashore at Sunny Coast or Gold Coast as a Cat 2.
That's what I thought happened, that it was cat 2 before it hit the Moreton and Straddie, which weakened it. But once I woke up and it had weakened I didn't look back at the overnight progress.
Thank goodness it did from the sounds of it. Rye - hope things work out and you are ok.
Tom reckons the dredge is turning up on the Gold Coast beaches in a week to 'do some rainbowing'
He's going to need a fleet of them.
Reckons he'll have the beaches restored in time for the April school holidays.
Most SES callouts in QLD history = media beatup.
@burleigh = knucklehead.
Brisbane’s wettest day in 50 years is a fabrication.
Cloud seeding no doubt
I bet 50 years ago people just got on with it. stayed inside or moved to higher ground, then went about the clean up like normal people.
They didn't have 50+ reporters standing in every puddle they could find in every suburb creating hysteria across Australia including 1 particular weird creepy human from WA
haha. You're the only person on this thread that lives there (apparetly) who's not grateful that they were spared from what could have been a pretty shit situation.
Maybe think about that instead of some weird creepy dude from WA.
Who said i wasn't grateful? If you actually lived here you would find a very common theme about the thoughts on the media hype, your imaginary friends don't count.
Wow, look at that. The 1974 Brisbane floods and cyclone were covered extensively by the media and the like. Looks like they didn't just get on with it....because...it was a significant event that impacted a shit tonne of people.
Great link here
https://www.slq.qld.gov.au/blog/brisbane-flood-1974-our-collections
Ah yes, exactly the same golf ball brain
Maybe take some time to reply to the crew above that posted about damage to their own houses and who are amongst the worst of it instead of this frivolous meaningless conversation that avoids replying to them. Would be interested to see your reply to those crew and i'm sure they'd appreciate a bit of clarity since their experience clearly doesn't match your words. Noight.
I think you need to re-read my comments slowly so you actually understand. Read them a few times.
Well this has gone down the shitta, two posters continuous quips against each others difference of opinion on a public forum. A bit childish don’t you think. Just let it go fellas. Or feel free the Swellnet mods at least ban reply’s to each other.. I’m back to Nickas35 on the ground reporting as this has become quite monotonous and quite frankly just junk. Stay safe everyone, the 3 nangs (nang nang nang) are going to be an echo in the background for a couple of days yet, hopefully any high waters receded as quickly as possible and a quickest recovery occurs where needed. Godspeed & good luck for any affected and/or affected areas
Yeah fair enough @ruckus. Thanks and noted
Probably got the blinkers on a little bit in the end there.
Apologies to all for my part.
Everything’s gonna be ok SR.
The putt putt ball is being re-erected as we speak!
Hehe, u said erected!
Just had first surf in 3weeks. :-D
All right, no one panic!!
Everything will soon be back in its right place.
#golfballwars2025
Oh fucken there he is!!! Actually me and ol golfie have a bit of history. About 6 years ago my campervan i had at the time decided to have a waterpump pulley seize up right in front of him. So had to call the roadside and get the old girl lynched up onto the back of the towtruck....with ol Golfymate staring down with his big silly grin the whole time. So to see him sprawled in the bushes,,,,couldn't help but think...who's laughing now c#nt!!?? ha. I did get pics of it. Actually, tbh, he made a shit situation pretty comical, so i do feel a connection with him, hence my deep, deep concern for his wellbeing. Onwards and upwards golfie....and all GCers who copped the worst of it.