Three cyclones now on the map with plenty of swell- possibly large if TC Alfred approaches SEQLD
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26 Feb)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fun tradeswells to round out the week, with SE-E winds favouring the Points
- Small pulse of long period E’ly swell likely from TC Rae Thurs into Fri
- Likely a small increase in size Sat as TC Alfred moves south
- Further increase in size likely from Sun as TC Alfred continues south
- Still lots of uncertainty over early next week as we wait to see what TC Alfred does
- Solid E’ly swells into next week- possibly XL with gales if TC Alfred approaches SEQLD
- More E’ly swell long term as trades remain active
Recap
E’ly tradeswells have been pulsing up and down, with maxima in the 3ft range (occ. 4ft) and minima in the 2ft range. Generally speaking, lower tides have provided the bigger surf. Winds from the SE have been lighter in the morning, SW for a period yesterday as the new ridge built in and more S-S/SE today. Plenty of fun surf to be had, focussed on the points for best wave quality.
A few spinners right down the end for the patient
This week (Feb26-28)
High pressure is in the Tasman with three tropical cyclones currently on the map. TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew, we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells may be confined to more northerly regions as models firm on a CQ coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems.
In the short run and leading into the weekend the outlook is fairly straightforwards for the region. Moderate SE winds north of the border, a little lighter south of the border and tending more E’ly south of Byron-Ballina. Morning land breezes are more likely across the North Coast with a chance of mid morning glass-offs.
No change to the surf outlook- more mid period tradeswell hovering around that 3ft range with some pulses and subtle ups and downs.
We will see some longer period sets in the mix from TC Rae when it tracked southwards into the swell window Mon into Tues. Models showed the system a little weaker than expected and it was only moving in the right direction for 24hrs or so but we should still see some inconsistent 3ft surf and a rogue bigger set is a possibility.
This weekend (Mar 1-2)
Given current modelling by Sat morning we’d expect TC Alfred to be in the Central Coral Sea moving southwards, and the remnants of TC Seru moving slowly eastwards in the South Pacific. The wind field south of TC Alfred should hold 3-4ft surf Sat, with a small amount of pure NE swell possible from winds wrapping into the core. Expect light/mod E/SE winds in SEQLD, tending more E’ly to E/NE’ly as you head south of the border. A few bigger sets are likely through the a’noon but we’ll confirm that on Fri.
Stronger surf likely Sun- subject to confirmation dependent on the track of TC Alfred. We’ll pencil in surf building to 3-5ft, a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast. Any more southward positioning of Alfred is likely to see that size upgraded. Similar winds to Sat but also subject to revision.
Next week (Mar 3 onwards)
Next week’s surf outlook still depends on the eventual track of TC Alfred. Model consistency has improved somewhat, suggesting a CQ coastal crossing. Latest EC and ACCESS runs are suggesting a more southward position for TC Alfred early next week bringing large swells to SEQLD and NENSW.
GFS has the system moving straight in for a CQ crossing early next week (see below) with an increase in size and straight onshore E’ly winds expected.
In the first scenario, we could be looking at genuine 10-12ft surf.
If we get the CQ crossing, more modest surf in the 6ft range is likely.
Stay tuned.
At minimum we’ll see more fun sized E/NE swell into next week as the remnants of TC Seru look to drift eastwards and maintain a firm trade fetch over the weekend.
Frontal progressions late next week may generate some S’ly groundswell although mostly sideband energy is expected.
Let’s see how it looks on Fri.
Seeya then!
Comments
At what point in time will we be able to confidently forecast the track that Alfred will take, and thus wind speed/direction and swell size? Will we be able to forecast mon-wed, say, by the end of the weekend?
I expect by Fri- although if it is a very weak steering environment we may need to go day by day.
Do you think TC Alfred will reach Category 6?
The Tasman system looks like it could be a large Fiji swell with that purple period production
that 10 ft stuff if it happens might be good for the chargers with skis but in reality they trash the banks and the water turns to chocy milkshakes to close to the coast cyclones .
Agree totally, I find it weird that most on all forums get pumped up about a 10ft swell, I doubt 5% would even consider the paddle out, give me head high beaches, in fact waist high beaches would be good enough, without this shit easterly wind flow from early morning to dark. It's been just so so average here.
Spot on.
The truth is we never want cyclones anywhere near us - a long way out to sea and adding to an active sea state, sure. The best runs of swell at this time of year IMO really are trade swells punctuated by a few longer period events. Waves galore for weeks but no insane bank destruction, chocolate water, floods and erosion.
The truth is, we will never know the benefits of a cyclone to the old forests & rivers because the mature trees, mangroves, salt marsh, wetlands, fish and organic food are long gone. Replaced by grass for cattle, sugarcane, suburban seachangers & coal port developments, etc. Fast past bux rulz.
Soil sediment plumes & massive algae blooms after heavy rain are the 'new' normal; east & west.
Jan 2011
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/48438/heavy-sediment-along-the-...
The Queensland Government has identified poor water quality as an ongoing challenge to coastal environments. Heavy doses of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus—common in fertilizers—increase the risk of harmful algal blooms (commonly known as red tide), which can prompt the closure of fisheries and swimming areas. Heavy sediment loads also cloud the water, interfering with photosynthesis in marine plants and smothering some organisms. In its Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Protection Plan, the regional government has made it a priority to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff to the ocean.
April 2017
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-12/erosion-from-cyclone-debbie-could...
https://wwf.org.au/news/2017/after-back-to-back-bleaching-now-cyclone-de...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/run-off-pollution...
April 2019
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2019/04/Queensland_floods
Jan 2024
https://www.jcu.edu.au/news/releases/2024/january/back-to-back-cyclones-...
"Cedar Bay" https://maps.app.goo.gl/TzoNXdFGRiBEAdraA
and there it is ladies a gents "trash the banks" its moments like these i know the world is spinning the right way round. definintaly up the top "TTB" with qoats like "say it again" "plate up" " carmalization"
Looks like all models are saying it will hug the coast now without making landfall. While it can change. It would be a good scenario. Lots of waves and no impact to land.
An excellent scenario
Potentially some significant rain and coastal erosion though.
...its heating up:)
Weekend of 8th n 9th looking good on SC.
What ya reckon, 3% chance of forecast staying like that??
Less.
Im now looking at these westerlies coming through mid next week on the forecast... like thats gonna happen haha... maybe 5% chance?
Absolutely impossible to say. Cyclones have a mind of their own and the forecast will chop and change every single update
Exactly.
EC now onboard with Access and a track away to the SE.
GFS looks skitzy.
Noosa and the pass will be absolutely pumping!
Got some serious sand stacked to the brim at first right now. If alfred behaves, its going to be insane
The pass doesn't really handle large cyclone swells . It's more of a 5 ft and under sand set up. The reason the banks are good at the moment and have been for long while is the absence of really large swells. Gentle 2 to 4 ft swells and the daily tide movements are part of what keeps the sand in good nick. I really hope it doesn't get to big , could be a bank buster. Wait & see eh.
So 1.5% chance. ..? :)
Now Access has it back heading NE and nailing bundy on the 7th. Only time will tell everything is all over the shop and thats about the only thing thats consistently inconsistent.
Now Access has it back heading NE and nailing bundy on the 7th. Only time will tell everything is all over the shop and thats about the only thing thats consistently inconsistent.
Been tracking it via Windy (not sure which model they use) & taking screenshots each morning & arvo.
Interesting to watch how the forecast has been so dynamic & different. Will be good to go back & do a “Budget vs Actual review” when it’s over.
Would be great if it didn’t come down any further / closer. Sand at my local is in pretty good shape. Snaffled couple of long waves this past week as sections linked up.
Dazzler, in Windy if you scroll down further below rain/wind/waves options you can choose different models.
The surf forecast on here is predicting 49kt winds on Tuesday for the SC. Definitely been a while since it’s been that windy. Might be a few trees down if so.
ha ha no one knows - I reckon SEQ coast is due for a direct hit..... agree on it not really benefting many if it gets massive. although I reckon we are going to get at least one day of massive swell and slack/offshore winds...
I'm not even going to surf this swell.
Just grabbing some popcorn and watching thred:)
Since being paywalled, I rarely poke my head in here. I'd just like to say this could be a "swell of the decade" event. the 2 cyclones waaaay out there will create rare type of active sea state for Aflred to work with. If Alfred did not exist, we'd be discussing Cyclone Seru, and its nice cradling by the high over new zealand over the near future. Probably some 4 footers at 13 seconds on sunday.
Some computer models are showing Alfred turn "James Cook country" into hawaii, then parking its fat arse out of Sandy cape for days, even slightly drifting east. With Serus underlying 4 foot groundswell, best dust off the 6'9.
Know your limitations.
Another interesting take / channel.
Quite a noticeable uptick in energy today, pity the straight easterly arrived with the low tide
It does look like based on the BOM modelling that if Alfred parks itself directly east of the Gold Coast - Fraser Island stretch and sits there as a Cat 2 then that is going to be very interesting to watch.
Straight east / east south east always far superior to anything from the northern quadrant.
ah i hope it doesnt get too big. been hoping and waiting for 4-6ft swell give or take a foot or so. if it gets huge, i dont have a jet ski, and the banks will be ruined
You could always check the Bundaberg to Agnes stretch- 120km of coastline.
Hey Sheepy be good if you can keep Sharing your Cyclone thoughts ...Tracks Etc .
Hey udo, long time no see. Hope u been well, mate
Been thinking of you this month Sheepdog with this jellyfish shit wind we've been having. Good to see you back.
Hope all is well for you.
the jelly fish shit wind hahahahahahahahahaha.. Cheers man, same to u. Actually been an ok summer of surf for this part of the world. I did crack a rib , in 2 foot surf before xmas. Fucked if I know how. Just hit the water on the wrong angle I guess. Maybe its all the late 50s extra muffin top weight hahahaha. Was only out of the water for 4 weeks. Been surfing this little cutey pie left reef. Has a funky back wash on higher tides as you get to the last section close to rocks. Coz it just keeps walling along, u get sucked in, then bam, swatted lol
Welcome back Sheepy, your input & commentary is always a good read for us mere mortals
There’s a couple others out there, my memory might evade me - OHV or OHM and Mickfree? Come join the party
Of course alongside the Swellnet crew and all others
It’s a token of appreciation post :)
Speaking of jellies. The past two years have been particularly minimal for blue bottles…..
…that is until the last 3 weeks or so, they’ve been thick on the ground! No matter the wind, anything from the east and or south has had them flying in. Must be a lot sitting just offshore there.
Anyone out there know much about them? Do blue bottles just float around in open ocean and for a long time waiting for the wind to bring them near enough to the wave zone?
Do they spawn with certain conditions or are they always there but way offshore?
I’ve wondered this and have no answers my whole surfing life……….
Udo, Free ride. Just like dominos. Everything is dependent on other dominos falling.
IMO, the roaring 40s storm belt, AND the summer high pressure belt have always had a big say in TC movements. Everything is dependent on that mega low going under Tassie. The faster that southern low moves away, the faster the high coming in from WA moves over Victoria/tassie, creating what I'll call for laymen here, a "blocking cradle fetch", and stopping the TC from moving SW.
If that southern low stagnates, the TC will hit bundy region.
But its my opinion that the southern ow will fuck off, the High will move over bass straight, and we'll have a cyclone swell that will more than make up for the recent months of garbage.
Do remember there are other spots other than Kirra and Noosa. There's a certain high tide beachy on the sunny coast, right in the middle of suburbia. one end is like board snapping neck breaking hawiian sanbars, whilst the other end is 2 to 3 feet in the protected corner.
Then theres 100km of coast north of a massive whale bay, great for intermediates looking at having a surf surfari. Spread yourselves out. Know your limitations. Dont be dicks.
Welcome back Sheepy. Hope you’re doing well and I’m enjoying your incites into this one.
Just please keep it low on surf spot hints please.