Three cyclones now on the map with plenty of swell- possibly large if TC Alfred approaches SEQLD
TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew, we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells may be confined to more northerly regions as models firm on a CQ coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems.
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Comments
At what point in time will we be able to confidently forecast the track that Alfred will take, and thus wind speed/direction and swell size? Will we be able to forecast mon-wed, say, by the end of the weekend?
I expect by Fri- although if it is a very weak steering environment we may need to go day by day.
Do you think TC Alfred will reach Category 6?
The Tasman system looks like it could be a large Fiji swell with that purple period production
that 10 ft stuff if it happens might be good for the chargers with skis but in reality they trash the banks and the water turns to chocy milkshakes to close to the coast cyclones .
Agree totally, I find it weird that most on all forums get pumped up about a 10ft swell, I doubt 5% would even consider the paddle out, give me head high beaches, in fact waist high beaches would be good enough, without this shit easterly wind flow from early morning to dark. It's been just so so average here.
Spot on.
The truth is we never want cyclones anywhere near us - a long way out to sea and adding to an active sea state, sure. The best runs of swell at this time of year IMO really are trade swells punctuated by a few longer period events. Waves galore for weeks but no insane bank destruction, chocolate water, floods and erosion.
The truth is, we will never know the benefits of a cyclone to the old forests & rivers because the mature trees, mangroves, salt marsh, wetlands, fish and organic food are long gone. Replaced by grass for cattle, sugarcane, suburban seachangers & coal port developments, etc. Fast past bux rulz.
Soil sediment plumes & massive algae blooms after heavy rain are the 'new' normal; east & west.
Jan 2011
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/48438/heavy-sediment-along-the-...
The Queensland Government has identified poor water quality as an ongoing challenge to coastal environments. Heavy doses of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus—common in fertilizers—increase the risk of harmful algal blooms (commonly known as red tide), which can prompt the closure of fisheries and swimming areas. Heavy sediment loads also cloud the water, interfering with photosynthesis in marine plants and smothering some organisms. In its Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Protection Plan, the regional government has made it a priority to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff to the ocean.
April 2017
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-12/erosion-from-cyclone-debbie-could...
https://wwf.org.au/news/2017/after-back-to-back-bleaching-now-cyclone-de...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/11/run-off-pollution...
April 2019
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2019/04/Queensland_floods
Jan 2024
https://www.jcu.edu.au/news/releases/2024/january/back-to-back-cyclones-...
"Cedar Bay" https://maps.app.goo.gl/TzoNXdFGRiBEAdraA
and there it is ladies a gents "trash the banks" its moments like these i know the world is spinning the right way round. definintaly up the top "TTB" with qoats like "say it again" "plate up" " carmalization"
Looks like all models are saying it will hug the coast now without making landfall. While it can change. It would be a good scenario. Lots of waves and no impact to land.
An excellent scenario
Potentially some significant rain and coastal erosion though.
...its heating up:)
Weekend of 8th n 9th looking good on SC.
What ya reckon, 3% chance of forecast staying like that??
Less.
Im now looking at these westerlies coming through mid next week on the forecast... like thats gonna happen haha... maybe 5% chance?
Absolutely impossible to say. Cyclones have a mind of their own and the forecast will chop and change every single update
Exactly.
EC now onboard with Access and a track away to the SE.
GFS looks skitzy.
Noosa and the pass will be absolutely pumping!
Got some serious sand stacked to the brim at first right now. If alfred behaves, its going to be insane
The pass doesn't really handle large cyclone swells . It's more of a 5 ft and under sand set up. The reason the banks are good at the moment and have been for long while is the absence of really large swells. Gentle 2 to 4 ft swells and the daily tide movements are part of what keeps the sand in good nick. I really hope it doesn't get to big , could be a bank buster. Wait & see eh.
So 1.5% chance. ..? :)
Now Access has it back heading NE and nailing bundy on the 7th. Only time will tell everything is all over the shop and thats about the only thing thats consistently inconsistent.
Now Access has it back heading NE and nailing bundy on the 7th. Only time will tell everything is all over the shop and thats about the only thing thats consistently inconsistent.