Another round of persistent trade swell with juicier options still on the radar late next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st Feb)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fun weekend for the points with fun trade swells and SE winds
- More raggedy options on the beachies and break walls for the keen
- Fun tradeswells most of next week, building late in the week
- Plenty of tropical potential for the medium term depending on evolution of tropical lows next week- check back Mon for latest updates
Recap
Leftover mostly S/SE swell to 2-3ft was clean briefly in the morning under light winds before E’ly winds kicked up, although conditions stayed surfable most of the day. South-east winds have kicked in today as a strong ridge builds up the coast with gurgly 2-3ft surf on offer across the region and generally poor/mediocre surf apart from a few clean peelers on the protected Points.
Sou-easter up at dawn, swell on the build
This weekend (Feb 22 - 23)
No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure has moved into the Tasman and sits there over the weekend. It’s quite a strong high (expected to strengthen from 1025 to 1030 hPa) with a typical wind signature for this time of year- mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending to NE winds in temperate NSW. The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics.
No change to the surf outlook. The SE surge and subsequent trade flow will generate SE-E/SE swells in the 3ft range with the occ. 4ft set more likely in SEQLD.
We may see just a slight improvement in surf quality Sun as wavelength draws out a bit, which is a typical feature of these swells.
Otherwise, mod tending fresh SE winds, with lighter winds inshore early.
The Points will have the best quality waves with a few more raggedy options for those not scared of some onshore or side shore wind.
Next week (Feb 24 onwards)
Over the weekend and into next week, we’ll see a broad wind field across the tropics and extending into the Northern Tasman and out through the South Pacific corridor. This will be book ended by tropical low pressure, which may form single or dual tropical cyclones. At this stage it seems most likely the South Pacific lows will scoot away to the SE (even if forming TC’s) which renders their swell generating production negligible. Of course, any slowing or stalling changes the equation and sets up conditions for E'ly groundswell- check back Mon for latest updates there.
The North QLD/Coral Sea low does have more potential, although GFS latest model run suggests a coastal crossing in North QLD.
That's the broad context for the week, with major uncertainty surrounding the fate of tropical low pressure, particularly in the Coral Sea.
As a minimum, we’ll see some workable E’ly tradeswells through next week, with surf hovering around the 3ft mark subject to subtle ups and downs depending on peterbations in the E’ly trade flow.
Winds will remain light/mod SE tending more E/SE then E’ly as the week wears on and clocking around E/NE-NE into the end of the week, a day earlier on the MNC.
As far as more significant swells go, everything depends on the fate of the North QLD low. ECMWF has the low drifting slowly southwards through the Coral Sea into the wide open South Pacific slot next weekend which puts quality E’ly swell on the table, sizeable too, as early as next weekend. GFS has a coastal crossing which effectively eliminates it as a source of swell, although a persistent trade flow will continue to hold fun sized E’ly swells.
Keep tabs on below the line commentary over the weekend in case something dramatic pops up.
If not, we’ll revisit on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.
Seeya then and have a great weekend!
Comments
It amazing how dynamic the weather is on the east coast compared to the Southern Ocean / Victoria & it sounds like my visit to SEQLD next week for 7 days may not be too badly timed - Looking forward to Mondays notes :)
Nah. Better off at Winki/Bells mate. Nothing to see up here :)
any good winds ?
The ridge does relax next week- too soon to say if we will get clean mornings and it depends what the Coral Sea low/cyclone does.
stay tuned.
In the meantime, expect classic SE conditions.
This forecast doesn't excite me one little bit... living between Byron and the border = no quality waves, beaches are ragged, no banks, lumpy swell, onshore, and the only protected points (there's not many) are crazy with people and no fun at all. Oh wait, Snapper will be great... I'll go out for 3 hours and catch 2 waves and both be snaked on... no thanks.
tis the season for the southeasterly points and there is only three true ones….
Glass half empty mate? Fill it up.
very valid point pjbyron. as a mexican the hype and excitment and build up is more exiting than what is acually deliverd on any given day surf wise. also swell = sweep when it does come, the Agrade men+ women make it all look like an easy task. personly prefer N NSW and surf it with an cross onshore wind.
its nice do daydream about heading up for bucket list surf in SE QLD. but the reality is as an ocean lover who surfs the tub once a week without fail im far from wave starved. and what pjbyron said cements the decision. though its very healthy to day dream.
Normally these patterns are long lasting and there is tons and tons of B-grade surf to gorge on, either side of the "hero" surf.
well said :)
If you own your place, you could sell up and move somewhere with good, less crowded surf south of you?
It's still a hot market up your way.
Hey Steve, is the wider low the one the BOM are referring to a 22U, or is 22U one that may turn back inland? They're saying 60% chance of cyclogenesis by Monday
Yeah, 22U is the Coral Sea system, NE of Cairns.
JTWC has it listed as 93P and given it a medium chance of cyclogenesis.
Ever since Craig mentioned ACCESS in another thread I've been using that for my daily fix. For a few days now it's been forecasting some seriously hectic scenarios in this part of the world at the end of the run for 22U.
Interesting that BoM doesn't mention 22U on its cyclone map yet.
Access is only good for the hi-resolution regional model output that goes out to 36 hours or so.
The 7-10 day always goes nuts and is useless.
Thanks for letting me know. I had noticed that it leans toward 60kt winds in 7 days time!
Been on the 7 day cyclone forecast since yesterday.
Here is the latest update from 5.30 this morning.
Tropical Low 22U
High chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity late weekend in the northern Coral Sea
Tropical low, 22U, is forming off the north Queensland coast and moving towards the southeast.
Over the weekend and early next week, 22U is expected to move through the northern Coral Sea and develop, with ratings increasing to High from Sunday.
From mid next week, 22U is forecast to move generally southwards and is likely to remain away from the Queensland coast at this stage.
While there is large uncertainty late next week in the forecast track, there is a slight chance of 22U moving towards the Queensland coast.
Latest BOM update:
“Tropical Low 22U
Tropical low 22U likely to develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow the northern Coral Sea.
Tropical Low 22U is developing well off the north Queensland coast and moving slowly east.
It is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow.
From mid next week, 22U is forecast to move generally southwards.
While there is large uncertainty late next week in the forecast track, there is a chance of 22U moving towards the Queensland coast.“
Copy that., thanks
UKMET forecast track interesting.
What’s also interesting is the EC AIFS model is going against most other models and not having a coastal crossing, rather tracking south offshore right down the east coast into the Tasman Sea.
Yeah we'll see eh.
I wonder if Alfred and Bianca will tango across these warm pools.
I’m hoping Alfred is happy hanging out in the coral sea for a bit on his own
Alfred is getting excited before exiting
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Much better this morning, little bit bigger and the longer period is helping. Sweep is nuclear though
Thats good SL67.
A little smaller down here- although swell quality on the sets is a notch improved.
Was some 3ft+ sets here yesterday arvo - more 2-3ft today.
Sweep is good if you're fit, it sorts a lot of crew out. I'm all for it.
I'm the same Burls - bone broth sorts you out for paddling.
Hey I went to this a few weeks back, my favourites were the cacao ceremony, the sound baths and also crystal workshop.
What were your favourites?
upload pic
Shamanic Journeys - have I been missing out my whole life?
An ex of mine went to a shaman-led sexual awakening retreat when she was very young. The shaman "taught her to masturbate", while her mum was in the room, no less.
The shaman's American Indian name was Spinning Coyote.
True story.
So yes, you could well be missing out I.B.!
Far canal, I've led a sheltered life, Andy. Shame on me.
There's some weird shit going on in this part of the world!
hope you went on the 4th or 5th @Andy.. 'two for one entry' on the 2nd and 3rd..
: /
Two for one entry sounds dodgy, especially if there's some kind of shaman involved.
Potentially painful.
It's a none judgemental space her AndyM. This must have been very traumatic for you. We're here to listen and not judge.
Ok :)
3-4ft chunky waves on the Tweed but quality was variable, if not low.
More annoying have been the fleet of learn-to-foilboard crew in the lineup. Why choose a crowded point (for any kind of surfcraft, let alone a foil!) especially if you're still unable to properly control it?
Absolute pests Ben. So dangerous.
As a surfer turned wingfoiler.( which I do professionally ) It really frustrates me that all the effort we have put in to stay away from surfers is getting undone by new people coming into the sport. Giving the whole thing a shit name.
Fair call mate. Even on the super crowded southern GC there's about 5klms of perfect beach for you guys, with no one surfing. There's even ample parking for your black Range Rover :) No need for cross contamination on already overcrowded points
What is a professional wing foiler?
in maui it does not matter what you ride a wave on everything is "cool" and "fashionable" thats just how it is over there. but here is AUS ill say mosty because of gen X mentality certain craft irritate people...it started off with mr boogie boarder then mr goatboat followed by 11ft mal then we hit the 2008 aprox then mr sup came along and every #%^t hated him i can tell you that. now a dozen years or so later we introduce mr wingding/foil.....and here we go again. acknowleged that certain craft should be used at certain spots period. i learnt at an early age every single sport has maggots and surfing seems to bring out lots of them and angry dad syndrome ontop of that too. i guess what im trying to say is mr foil will come and go( remember the kneeboard foil for for ski boats). its an somewhat easy sport on the body for washed up middle age ment who are shit at everthing. like kitesurfing( i enjoy this)
as and armchir critic who has not tried it yours truley pigdog.
ps does pro wingding/ foil pass the pub test.
A big welcome all to TC Alfred. Here we go....
And also a welcome to TC Rae, NE of Vanau Levu and tracking south-south westwards.
EC AIFS still progging a Sly track parallel to the coast. Albeit very slowly. If AIFS comes off Alfred could be a sustained east coast deliverer!!!
AIFS still the outlier. EC and GFS aligned fairly well at this point all things considering.
Geez what a complicated forecast coming up. At least we've got plenty of swell for many days to come.
Looks like all that swell will coincide with a week of onshore winds in the south.
'Spinning Coyote' hey??? Masturbate with Mum in the room? Could be potential for a Bowling club double there! As far as your report goes Freeride bring it on! After nearly 2 months of Summer slop around here it's about time Huey! Hopefully we'll get some offshore mornings here on the Mid Nth Coast as a few reefs are overdue to be lit up!
Gee Alfred is even stumping JTWC both in terms of intensity and track.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
Mental, just meandering up there.
Although the two main models have a crossing or near enough, around the SE QLD coast. Still early days yet, fingers crossed it stays offshore, I don't own enough anchors to keep my boat off the rocks if EC comes to pass
Just wondering why we don't see any north easterly swell at this stage from Alfred? Is it too far off? (from a complete forecasting novice).
True NE swells are incredibly rare.
Most of the gales are on the southern flank.
There are gales on the NW flank but they aren't aimed at us.
the WAMS giving some cool images - kinda reminds me of Edvard Munch's "The Scream". Maybe they are up there concerned for us